Technical Analysis Doesn't Work

jack hershey · Aug 28, 2007

Quote from taowave:

Rcanfiel,I think you are on to something...There should be an "Elite Trader" trading showdown..Its time to separate the posers from the traders...

There should be consensus from those involved as to the rules of the contest.Lets attempt to make it as "real" as humanly possible,and not some bullshit contest where you trade 50,000 shares of some 2 dollar stock that has no float..

There are some pretty spectacular claims made on this board..Lets find out who can walk the talk once and for all...
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Personally, I am glad ranfiel is going to be taking on all comers. It will be a great chance for him to show his stuff. It is neat to see a non TA guy step up and begin to post his results. I missed them on the P&L so far but I'm sure they are posted there somewhere.

jack hershey · Aug 28, 2007

Quote from rcanfiel:

Jack Hershey

Here is your chance to get in on the action. Since you are such a wealth of experience and knowledge, you can join us in showing your trading acumen!!!

I know you would NEVER turn down the opportunity. And please don't reply with the expected "too busy" or "my methods are too hard to quantify" or "others have shown my vast abilities" etc. etc.
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I do not meet your requirements.

PitchBlack · Aug 28, 2007

Quote from optioncoach:

To be fair to both sides, what is the motivation or compensation for any successful trader to show you their logic, let you demo it or give you brokerage statements (especially since you will claim all are doctored so no point there).

You ask a lot from someone to have their trading logic and systems opened up to you to prove a point. If someone wants to make claims how they are trading well, I still do not see any motivation for them to prove with personal information on a message board.

I do not think you are entitled to any of it really just because you ask. I have been making money trading full time using nothing but TA tools (I still make the trading decisions but use price charts to analyze), but I see no gain on my part to prove my approach works to someone who simply claims it is not true.

I assume most traders would feel the same way so your request seems silly for such information. If you think something does not work, that's fine. But I have yet to see anything where a trader is obligated to prove anything to you. Many here are arguing with you here which is also silly.

Traders have nothing to prove to anyone outside of their immediate circle and anyone who tries to prove something to random strangers is looking for false vindication when only p/l matters.
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Indeed, but to understand what you say one has to be a profitable trader. That explains why neither rcanfiel nor marketsurfer understand that not a single real trader would accept the challenge.
Having an IQ of 158 apparently is not a guarantee to enable someone to understand why others might not be interested in a proposal.

dalailama · Aug 28, 2007

Quote from jack hershey:

I do not meet your requirements.
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A simple "my system does not work" will suffice Jack

rcanfiel · Aug 28, 2007

Quote from optioncoach:

To be fair to both sides, what is the motivation or compensation for any successful trader to show you their logic, let you demo it or give you brokerage statements (especially since you will claim all are doctored so no point there).

You ask a lot from someone to have their trading logic and systems opened up to you to prove a point. If someone wants to make claims how they are trading well, I still do not see any motivation for them to prove with personal information on a message board.
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You miss the point. No one wants anyone's logic. You tweezed that out of a long and left most of the other stuff out.

But people claiming to be trading gurus, and constantly spreading their trading acumen (such as chloride a couple weeks ago, or Bulls n Bears claiming to run a successful company and wanting to start a service after 5 weeks before pleading for mentors, etc. etc.), then most of this is suspect.

No one has to do anything. But coming on "I am wildly successful, believe me, follow me" then they shouldn't mind demonstrating it. Otherwise, they should leave their self-testimonials and guru mantles at the door.

If you don't agree, then well, you don't agree. I have nothing more to say on that.

rcanfiel · Aug 28, 2007

Quote from jack hershey:

I do not meet your requirements.
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Which requirement:

"you are such a wealth of experience and knowledge"
"showing your trading acumen!!!"

or " well, I never said my stuff WORKed, I just like others to THINK I can trade"

???

marketsurfer · Aug 28, 2007

Quote from rcanfiel:

Terms? Results need to have reasonable Sharpe, Profit Factor, and Risk:Reward ratio. For example, a Larry Williams style shoot for the moon 1,000+ return with Profit Factor of 1.2, high Risk of Ruin and low Sharpe on $300 daytrading margins does not trump a 300% return with Profit Factor of 7 and Sharpe of 5 at 3:1 leverage. Also, the trades must be in reasonably tradeable instruments. Shorting 3000 shares of something with daily volume of 800 is unrealistic.

The results must be as tradeable with real money as with papertrading. And the results must include an agreed-upon standard slippage/commission, since this is also real world. Scalping returns would struggle compared to something that holds for a week at a time, in the real world.

Monitoring method? We can choose either Timertrac.com (free) or posting entries and exits BEFORE the fact here in this thread, or I suggest we create a new thread for posted trades. (doctored) "broker's" statements are unacceptable. Results MUST be independently monitored.

Method? I plan to trade open-to-close of index futures instruments (ES, for example) at approx 7:1 leverage, although that can vary depending on opportunity. Some days are less opportune than others
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Proflogic clearly has no clue what you are talking about. odds are 98% that he will not play in an arena that will actually verify his system.

regards,

surf

rcanfiel · Aug 28, 2007

Quote from jack hershey:

Hi Prof,

We both know this guy is Phishing of informantion.

Hardly. Your constant refusal to get under the lights to show your ability or not says much.

I think the put up or shut up approach is really cool.

That was ME who issued this, not ProfLogic. Try cleaning your glasses and reread the posts. Proflogic was challenged several times in years past to show that he works, and he backed out

As for his terms...I loved the Phishing response. He has nothing to offer and he wants to get something he a can try to merchandise later using his current MO.

I think you have a much longer history of avoiding showing you have anything. Personally, I have seen little worth "Stealing." I have no interest in anyone's wares. I am unconcerned about taking part in a challenge. As I see from your response, you have run and hidden.

I expect ProfLogic to back out within the next week or two with some unexpected excuse, as you did in the past when you were apparently down some 26%. Every request since then, you avoid answering.

Or ProfLogic may go along as he makes some money, but will then deflate on some implosion and THEN issue his reason for having to withdraw.

Or he will just avoid responding for awhile after he deflates...

My knives are sharpened.

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rcanfiel · Aug 28, 2007

Quote from spike500:

Indeed, but to understand what you say one has to be a profitable trader. That explains why neither rcanfiel nor marketsurfer understand that not a single real trader would accept the challenge.
Having an IQ of 158 apparently is not a guarantee to enable someone to understand why others might not be interested in a proposal.
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Those who claim ability should have no fear of substantiating their claims.
I never pretended to have "abilities."

Those who are just here to discuss the issues or challenge widely held beliefs or expand knowledge of different trading styles or money management or who are the best books/brokers/etc.

The Prof and Jack have (or think they have) cult followings and make with the lofty talk. They certainly don't DISsuade those who think they are gurus. Surely they do not mind evidencing this.

marketsurfer · Aug 28, 2007

Quote from rcanfiel:

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even paper trading on collective2 would be enough for proflogic to verify his claims... he doesn't have to reveal anything on collective2--- his system simply can't survive a real time test of any kind, obviously.

surf