OK. I WOULD LIKE TO PROPOSE TO ALL THE PEOPLE WHO FELT OFFENDED AND USE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TO POST ONE SINGLE LINE: "TECHNICAL ANALYSIS DOES NOT WORK!" Just so that we protect TA and stop this idiot thread!
hahahaha. your changing your premise. you stated that TA increases ones probabilities---i explained that it does not. i was an associate member of MTA and am very well versed in most aspects of TA. thank you, surf
I don't think you even graduated from high-school! You are very well versed on WHAT? That is an assertion. You need to prove it! (rcanfiel - where are you?) How am i changing my premise?
I do not remeber saying TA increases one's probabilities! One's probabilities to do what !? Go to the toilet or what !??!?! I don't think you are able to read well. Shall i hire you a translator?
The basic concept for trading patterns is simple when understood. All patterns are defined. A definition that has high utility is in the form of a sequence of events. Each element of the sequence is stated as an easily programmable "proof".. The term proof means that the software ststes that the element is "true". To be completely definable (have great utility), the definition must contain, as part of the pattern, several sequential events which appear prior to the money making entry point of the pattern and they must extent to the exit point of the pattern. The most common 80 such patterns used by traders are called edges. I believe I have listed them in the past. One theme of unsuccessful traders is that a pattern cannot be known until it is over. (See surf type reasoning) Another common test that can be performed to see if any paper or article written on any pattern is high quality is to look at the testing procedure in terms of the elements of the sequence and their respective definitions. Usually this aspect is ommitted by people who are writers or journalists. To judge a paper as successful it is necessary to review it from a scientific viewpoint. Many writers and journalists have little or no scientific training. (see Ruggerio and ranfiel as examples). By looking at an assortment of 80 edges and using a VENN analysis of their sequenctial parts, both with respect to the components and the sequence of the components, a generalised matrix can emerge if the dimensions of the venn diagram are organised. The two axes become obvious when trails of the task of doing this are more and more refined. It becomes rather obvious what the next trading plan steps would be. I always evaluate the trader posting from what he doesn't say. Most traders do not speak about their ongoing iterative refinement because they are not doing it. this is because they are considered rather intelligent and they express that they have great experience. In effect, they have terminated their career's modelling and development process and are just "operators" for the remaining period of their trading. The VENN chart is a requirement to be able to model any trading strategy. Their equity curves often are linear plots on non logarithmic paper. Any successful trader cannot use non logarithmic paper for obvious reasons. LOG-log becomes a requirement at some point. Making money involves acquiring skills. They are measured using efficiency, effectiveness and finally optimization measures. Patterns are the standard against which these items are measured. Once you have done 100 or more charts by scribing the profit paths through the patterns, you get to see better, what the standard looks like. The statistical results of the market's perfomance is the standard. It is also handy to have the volatility and overlap (moreso the overlap) in hand for analysis as well. both of these are patterns of the market. In the past few months we are going through a major increase in effectiveness and efficiency as traders. More is being offered by the mrkets than usual because of the failures of lesser quality strategies. This precipitates more to the better strategies which can sense the opportunities. Obviously, the ET posting reflects which side of this opportunity a person is on. It also ponts out which people are "stuck" and which people still have the capability to model and develop. A good example is fatrat's commentary on the job market. He is now skilled enough to see when he is talking to a potential employer who is stuck. Neither renfiel nor surf could see this even onec in their lives. None of these people has ever been employed by an unstuck employer. TA is the basis of determining what the market is offering and, further, it is the basis of skills and knowledge acquisitions for making money more effectively, efficiently and optimally. Pattern analysis, when properly done, plays a role in this.
Jack: I admire the way you took your time to explain what i was yelling about to these 2 complete idiots. It goes to show that people like you are mentally tough. Thank you!
jack, your intial premise is wrong. TA patterns are NOT defined. What are the exact parameters of a "head and shoulders" so that it may be tested properly?---as one small example..... regarding this one subjective pattern-- may i suggest this federal reserve's study "the head and shoulder pattern in US equitites" by Carol Osler. reality is--- it's the random reinforcement that causes these myths to persist-- per carol osler---i agree with her. regards, surf