well, does the term "moving" mean anything to you?? its inherent in the structure of the MA for this to occur at times, other times it doesn't. no predictive qualities at all. this particular aspect of TA has been tested ad infinium with sometimes worse than random results for a trader. surf
but they are not "driven by people or the herd any longer, as they were prior to the world of the mega fund. huge funds seek to exploit every inefficiency, throwing money at whims, rumours and real information or driven by highly complex algos running in milliseconds on super computers seeking to capture each and every stray dollar. if they are subjective funds, which there are some huge ones, one person now controls what use to be controlled by 1000's and if you think you know when he decides to buy/sell whatever and throws the market by using TA---you are truly delusional--not to mention the obvious---- TA only reflects the past, and i agree it works well for illustrative purposes. one needs to understand the real drivers of today and not live in the past no matter how comforting the above platitudes are. and no behavioral finance has NOTHING to do with TA--- where did this idea come from? may i suggest learning about program trading and reading "equity markets in action" by schwartz for a basic primer on what is actually happening on a day to day basis. regards, surf ps. not to mention hedgers and other monster commercial interests buying/selling to balance their exposure---trust me, this has nothing to do with TA.
I thought the same thing (has nothing to do with TA) until recently... I believe this is a new study or approach to TA and there's a few books on the topic or with a few chapters devoted to it. Not sure where I saw it but there was different sources (different studies via different authors) and I'm sure its searchable on the net. Mark
ok, that's news to me. if you happen to find any information on this new connection, let me know--thanks. best regards, surf
What you say is that behavioral finance has everything to do with TA. ( no....NOTHING) I find it strange that you don't accept my view on behavioral finance , but at the same time seem to be interested when this item comes from Niha... I studied behavioral finance already in 1990. At that time people found it a crazy idea. Some people at ET know by now that the idea was not so crazy at all.
It took me overnight and most of the morning to digest your collection of pedantic thoughts and simplistic ad hominems. To the best of my knowledge, papers which are submitted to journals for consideration of publication typically are sent to a panel of reviewers, most often three "outside" individuals, but sometimes two and the journal editor. The majority decision is then communicated to the author. I am working on my grasp with one of those little squeezy thingys. The fact that the authors made very clear what the purpose and findings were, does not have anything to do with the credibility of what they had to say. Yes I do. lj
no offense meant, if your a trader or into the market-- your my friend--even proflogic types! im totally interested in learning something new and truly apprieciate your input--sorry if i come off otherwise. however i think there is a basic misunderstanding of illustrative function of TA and actual projection function within B, finance. B.finance may use TA charts to illustrate the market---but as far as i know, this is as far as it goes, or could go outside of sketcy,whimsical theory. surf
My native tongue isnât english, so i do not always understand the small differences between the words that are used. But to me TA is a visualisation of calculations. I discovered 8 different strenghts in market movements. Strenght means in this case a certain behaviour. For each kind of behaviour (strenght) I have a corresponding scenario to go long, short or to do nothing at all. Each scenario tells in advance what the market will do. About the reliability: normally about 90% of the trades are profitable and I give back less than 5% of the total profits in my losing trades. This is the result of the fact that I know always in advance what I have to do ( this doesnât mean that the system is always correct, but damage is always limited). After 17 years of trading I know that there are many system that cannot give that kind of information. http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=781685&highlight=decisiontable#post781685
Damn it! Why do I bother? I wrote my post on page 64 in order that it would be addressed and debated by the detractors of TA, not in order for it to be ignored by them. Why has not a single detractor responded? Is my rationale so trifling as to be beneath them? Indeed, why do I bother? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1558816#post1558816