Technical Analysis Doesn't Work

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by rcanfiel, Jul 16, 2007.

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  1. Quote from maxpi:

    If somebody had some really great system it would not be found there


    Quote from rcanfiel:

    It is even less likely that it would be found from ET...


    Both true, because you must be an idiot to give away a good system, especially to people who do not deserve it. I gave away a few hints in the past (but not even 20% of my system). I know of people who dramatically improved their trading based on these hints (some of them even posted the improvement on ET). But this where guys who don’t show off by telling how highly intelligent they are and they don’t talk about their university degree. They didn’t say either that only they knew the truth about what works and what doesn’t. They were humble and open to new thoughts, even if these thoughts would be completely different from the classical TA (or from anything else). They wanted to learn new things and decided afterwards if these ideas were good or not. But all these actions are not visible, because these guys only read the postings on ET and PM if there is something they want to know. The most frequent sentence in all these PM’s is: don’t care about the very negative attitude of most ET posters.

    Here people judge on you without even having the slightest clue how you trade and what kind of system you use. Because of their arrogance and the fact that they know everything, they will never know anything at all. And they will even not realize what the result is of their attitude because they are so busy with their own ego.
     
    #331     Jul 24, 2007
  2. Finally a TA thread seems to be turning educational thanks to such erudite posters as rcanfield,nihabi ashi, and spike. there does, however, seem to be a divergence of opinion among the TA users, a severe divergence. if i'm misunderstanding, let me know---- nihabi ashi believes that TA needs outside inputs and it appears he uses inter-market analysis ( smart ) among other outside inputs. on the other hand, there is a person named proflogic who appears to use TA alone within some kind of claimed "non varying environment" with no other inputs, yet proports uncannily accurate entries/exits.

    i would consider both these guys experts in the TA field--- it can't be both--- TA works by itself without any outside inputs or it doesn't. can anyone clarify this?

    thanks,

    surf
     
    #332     Jul 24, 2007
  3. The whole premise of the thread is stupid.. you find an edge, your own little niche and exploit it.. using TA or not.. works, doesn't work.. stupid assumptions.. the world is grey not black and white.. and money management rules
     
    #333     Jul 24, 2007
  4. Why?
    you find an edge, your own little niche and exploit it.. using money management or not.. works, doesn't work.. stupid assumptions.. the world is grey not black and white..
     
    #334     Jul 24, 2007
  5. Because it's the difference between dark grey and light grey... see how that works sparky :p
     
    #335     Jul 24, 2007
  6. The system rules, money management is only for an emergency rescue if the system fails.
    A money management system is used when the black figures turn into (to much) red.
     
    #336     Jul 24, 2007
  7. Oh dear.. any wonder 95% of traders lose
     
    #337     Jul 24, 2007
  8. Yes, because they think that the money management makes the money, while in fact the system should make it.
     
    #338     Jul 24, 2007
  9. A very coherent post.

    I think it is great when people are open to educating each other. I do not divulge the few methods I have found with significant value because successful traders have one or more things constituting their "edge", But I am open to exchanging on topics such as money management, position sizing, diversification, taxes, brokers, books and many others.

    I think the least useful things I have found are "psychology," and almost all TA, as I have elucidated earlier. When things get into the realm of belief, feel, and other similars, I lose interest. If I can't put it into a spreadsheet for statistical analysis, or see independently monitored performance data or well-accepted studies, I tend not to believe the system provider/trader. People who put forth claims they are successful are welcome to their own trading success. When they start offering their services or trading advice or hold themselves up as gurues, then they had better support their claims with evidence (but they are usually elusive about this).
     
    #339     Jul 24, 2007
  10. Yeah good luck with all that Spikey :p
     
    #340     Jul 24, 2007
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