You really have a great difficult admitting that you are WRONG. It is clear for everyone to see. Paul Tudor Jones is quoted by Jack Schwager in "Market Wizards" on Page 130 attributing much of his success and approach to the use of Elliott Wave Theory. Instead of admitting that you were WRONG about Paul's use of Elliott Wave ( which most traders are well aware of ), you instead have a "temper-tantrum" and continue to go off on absurd rants. And your huge Ego is really quite telling when you reference an interview of PTJ that you picked-out . . . as if it is the ONE and ONLY interview of PTJ in the history of mankind, and no other interviews ( such as the one by Schwager in "Market Wizards" ) count, or even exist. Time to grow up, my friend.
the fact that rcanflied was wrong about PTJ, doesn't diminish his very valid points on the threads topic. surf
Understood. My point is that it goes to his character and how he handles himself . . . and the hypocrisy of looking for only what he wishes to "see" and believe. As a result, a "balanced" and "objective" discussion is not a realistic goal with this individual. It is a waste of time. And yet, here we are 28 pages later . . . Back to trading.
There is technical analysis that does not work and then there is technical analysis that obviously does work. Most know, that most technical analysis does not have much forecasting value. You just need to work out which technical analysis does work and which does not work for your trading style and your trading instrument.
thankyou for making my point. As I stated the paper had a losy topic and the way the topic was reseacched (ertefacts..blah...bah) made any result other than a nebulous one be a possibility. Anyone can read the paper and see it is not a contribution of any sort at all The seven page bibliography bounds their research that let them to a hypothesis and to a tsting of their hypothesis. In the introduction they point out how others did studies and them mention on study of 92 studues and its results. This study and its results are something anyone can use to build upon. their is nothing to build upon, however by the results of Batchelor and Raymar. Is that all the TA community has?? Some people know the extent of what the TA community has. Others do not. I assume that you know the depth and breadth of TA and the TA community. For me, it has been my focus for about 50 or so years. Categorically for me, "great traders you have never heard of" is where the best and most relevant knowledge, skills and expertise lies. Most have heard of the Wizards and the newsmakers and champoin vendors. This is a small part of the TA community. I am very happy to say that there is a recognition in this small subset of the need to stay in touch and share. What makes it particularly nice is that a lot of the things of and in the broader TA community are no longer on the table. The community you favor is not the TA community and certainly not the subset of the TA community that I favor most. There is simply no overlap in our interests. I believe that it is a good idea for anyone to take an interest in others and what they do and prefer. I am doiung a lot in the quiet TA community subset of the traders who are great and who don't really get around in public too much. Most are not speakers and most only appear briefly once in a while. At such times when several are together it is a very pleasant and free exchange of ideas and mutual interests. Stories abound. sometimes it gets serious as well. The many facets of the TA community are really facinating as well. The way TA and it's community relate to the financial industry, its traditions and especially its othodoxy is one of the most rare and complex long term economic relationships that has ever occurred. It is a delightful thing to participate in and to observe. So far it media has not recognized even the tip of the iceberg in trms of the wealth of stories. Most all great TA traders take a walk right out of the financial industry. There are never any reasons to stay. You represent the financial industry. Look at the Derman interview. A parallel would be Tim at TE and him interviewing a great TA trader. I have only seen about four such live sessions and the interviewees only total under a dozen different poeple. They all turned out the same way. Tim sort of dropped out and the interviewees interviewed each other. Luckily most of the time after the formal interview things went of for quite a while informally. These people aren't vendors and they usually are running OPM by invitation, selectively, and they do lay off money to others occassionally. Right now there are some discussions going on about getting pertinent sets of Q's together to be able to have some good public interview sessions. What would it be like if some great Q's were asked of some great TA traders? Is that all there is in the TA community? Not one of the Q's to ask.
Haven't read all of this thread but, in response to the topic, what TA does is correctly study the forensic evidence of the supply and demand chain, visually through charts or statistically through the price and volume action. The results if done correctly are 100% accurate but how the user interprets it is usually 95% inaccurate. Thus rejecting TA as a very proper means of measuring the S&D is equivalent to rejecting the S&D itself, which only fools would.
%100 accurate? You realize that every ET'er and their dog is going to ask you to prove this very shortly... TNG
yes, hindsight is 100% accurate. the issue is extrapolating the past ( TA by definition is the past, otherwise it wouldnt exist) into the future. one basic, timely and simple example--- how is volume going to help you with the ability to hide orders, black pools of liquidity, and or fundees moving vast somes at will--- you are only deluding yourself if you think you see everything. seriously. surf