NG could "noodle around" for 6 months. Holding UNG wouldn't be much of a problem, but holding leveraged positions could be due to decay.
I know, I was asking the question to point that those TA lines won't add anything to your analysis. You just know that $2 is a price that you will be willing to take, like everyone else. And you know that by looking at the past behavior of the market. That's it.
You just know that $2 is a price that you will be willing to take, like everyone else. And you know that by looking at the past behavior of the market. (Duh... that's what TA is all about.) Your conclusion is incorrect. The $2 is a line... a "support line"... they always mean the same. It seems you want to dismiss the significance of a support line in this case because it's "fundamentally obvious at $2". It's actually both.
I guess you can always justify any line you draw on a chart, but my point is that you can get to exactly the same conclusion without drawing any line, as you said it is obvious. So in this case TA is just something that you like to add, but it is not needed.
Wrong again. When the support lines are not at fundamentally obvious places, they still mean the same.
TA works well for me. But results may vary ... "do not try this in your living room", etc Caveat about buying in a bear market, the effects of stagflation. Which is what the FED is terrified of. It actually behooves the FED to hold prices down (called "capping"), and never contradict the FED's pronouncements. The FED is terrified of rising prices, especially housing and autos. Those are big $$$ industries. If the FED holds down Steel prices, copper prices, lumber prices, that will result in less production, and create shortages. Can't get a new car, new house, so what? But if the FED tried to hold down food prices (corn, soybeans, sugar, etc) People will start going to bed hungry. The FED has many hundreds of PhD Economists on the payroll. If they learned only one thing in Econ classes, it is that cronically hungry citizens are very dangerous. I have many different commodity positions. The ones I worry about the least are the AGs. *** During the Great Depression, FDR (POTUS 32) was famous for his "Emergency price controls". Price caps on everything. Took four years of World War Two to climb out of that economic hole.
My goodness!!!! UNG is in the downtrend!!!! Even the blind can see it is on a downtrend!!!!!!!!! For goodness sake, don't trade against the trend. Don't attempt to catch the falling knife. Wait patiently for UNG to be on the uptrend. Then take a LONG position !!!!
There are only 2 choices: 1) Use technical analysis because it works or 2) Do not use technical analysis because it does not work. You have to pick one. Technical analysis is just a tool. Like a hammer to drive a nail into a piece of wood, to secure it. You can use your bare hands and try and drive that nail with your bare hands but, you will probably, bleed your hands and injure them without being able to drive that nail in. The problem is traders have different levels of competency like any profession. You have legions of rank newbie traders dreaming of making millions and throwing their monies at the stockmarket, hoping to make their millions. Then, you have other traders who have been at it a while, but, not quite reached the level of competency to take consistent profits out of the stockmarket. Lastly, you have the true professional traders who paid their dues, studied and perfected their trading systems and now reaping the rewards. Are they using or not using technical analysis? Who knows? It does not really matter in the greater scheme of things. Use whatever helps you make monies in the stockmarket otherwise, what are you doing in the stockmarket?