lolololololololol. Surf bashes TA. It is then uncovered that he has written an article praising TA methods. Then he says 'TA can add some value'. You couldn't make this up if you tried. I m short price drivers and long bs drivers. lol.
I planted some flower seeds in a sandbox last December. The next day there were no flowers. So that proves it. 'Gardening does not work, never did, never will'. I should have listened to those guys on ELITEGARDENER. Especially that guy whose handle is gardenpest.
Whatever works for you, works for you -- debating these kind of relatively subjective and complicated stuff...is kind of meaningless Trading is part art, part science -- great traders realize this. Supporting only one way or viewpoint kind of makes you look dumb, and doomed for failure.
The present is past once observed. The future is unknown. Every educated about the future is based on past data, because there simply is no other data.
Trend following doesnt work either. The countertrend opportunities from ES 666 to new high 2100 over the last 6 years have been amazing. You just have to be super patient, have modest targets, and never forget stops. Eating a little glass is fun as well.
Bold and underline mine below. http://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/picking_up_pennies_for_profit "New research by Robert Korajczyk (Professor of Finance at the Kellogg School of Management), Kellogg alumnus Ronnie Sadka (Professor of Finance at Boston College), and Steven L. Heston (Professor of Finance at the University of Maryland) reveals surprising patterns that can help predict daily peaks in stock price. This work was deemed so influential in the field of quantitative investment that it was awarded the 2009 Crowell Prize by PanAgora Asset Management." "Each 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM trading day was broken into thirteen half-hour intervals. The researchers studied more than 16,000 such intervals in total, spanning from January 2001 through December 2005. For each of the roughly 1,700 stocks, the group measured the return across each interval. They then compared stocks’ returns at each interval to returns at previous intervals. A clear pattern emerged. Earlier returns preceding in multiples of exactly thirteen intervals (e.g., 13, 26, 39, 52, etc.) showed significant correlation to the return over the current interval. In other words, knowledge that a stock’s return was high between 3:00 and 3:30 yesterday afternoon predicts that its return will be high between 3:00 and 3:30 today, tomorrow, the next day, etc. So buyers could realize a premium by buying that stock on the cheaper side before 3:00, and sellers could wait until the value topped out between 3:00 and 3:30 to execute sales. Moreover, though the strength of the prediction diminishes from one day to the next, this predictive pattern persists every day for up to forty trading days, spanning roughly two months." Wow! Now that is interesting. So they studied past price behavior and found a repeating pattern. Yeah, that sounds nothing like TA. Then published a study regarding their results and won a quantitative award for it. ADD: Furthermore, they found that past price behavior predicted future price behavior. Yeah, nothing like TA. ADD: Do the results of this study in anyway put a dent in EMT? Perhaps someone should tell Tom Sosnoff about this study and the guys down the street at University of Chicago.
The more anyone tries to nail down your argument the more vague you get and claim we do not get it. You said corporate forecast, your statement is not a corporate forecast it is a vague general statement that implies nothing at all. It is typical of a person who cannot sustain an argument to simply change the parameters of the topic to avoid confronting their incorrect conclusions. When McD announced it would go to 24 hour breakfast it made detailed analysis of the effect of this news on sales by analyzing sales of its breakfast items and similar data as well as probably testing it in a few markets. This data is collected to determine if it is worthwhile to do it nationwide or in bigger markets. Nobody makes a corporate announcement or forecast based on a guess without using any past data to support their analysis. You think an executive stood up in the board meeting and said let us do breakfast 24 hours and we will increase sales/earnings and everyone said yes and that was it? You never worked in corporate america so I can understand your ignorance of this fact. The market also made a buy or sell decision based on their analysis of past fundamental data with respect to breakfast sales as a % of total sales and growth based on those sales etc.. Apple's iWatch forecasts were based on detailed number crunching of the market to see the potential for this product and analysts made the same research as best as they could to determine the effect of this new product on sales going forward. Are their idiots out there who would buy a stock simply because they made such a proclamation? Possibly but you seem to imply with your Price Drivers you would never make such an ignorant buy or short so it does not support your argument.
Reminds me of that old saying...Those who can Do, Do -- Those who Can't, teach. (or become mentors/gurus/newsletter writers/etc/price driver advocates )
Thanks for posting that. I'll look at it closer and revert. But my first thought is this study was done prior to HFT as the latest data is a decade old. Big changes since 2oo5 in microstructure. surf