Technical Analysis = CRAP

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Frits, Apr 27, 2011.

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  1. #791     Jun 28, 2011
  2. Obviously you TA folks know something I don't. I don't get anywhere near

    "Closeout Winning Trade Percentage with STO's =92.15%"


    Not even the greatest traders I have ever heard of get these results. I can't wait to see these programs!

    I guess, fireplace, to make a living starting with 25k in a retail account, your results Also need to be at least that, right??

    Surf
     
    #792     Jun 28, 2011
  3. Many of us have LEARNED what to do (and just as importantly) what NOT to do.....if we 'know' something you don't it's only because we put the time in to understand the game from the ground level. We took it past the hobby stage.

     
    #793     Jun 28, 2011
  4. Easy. I win about 2 of 3 times. That's 67 wins of 100, and 33 losses of 100 on average. Multiply the wins and losses by the Risk/Reward ratio. Mine is about 1/4. So I lose 2% of my account on the losses (33% of the time) and gain 8% of my account on the wins (66% of the time) on average. One third x 2% weighted against two thirds x 8% makes a new winning trade ratio of 8:1. That comes out to about 88.88% (8/9), just shy of the 92.15% mark you mentioned. Change the win/loss ratio ever so slightly and you're above 92% easily.
     
    #794     Jun 28, 2011
  5. Do you base your trades on directional TA or is this some type of interexchange arbitrage like I did in the early 2000's?

    Thanks
     
    #795     Jun 28, 2011
  6. How many traders do you know that trade 24 hours a day, 5 and half days a week for a year?
     
    #796     Jun 28, 2011
  7. Only non human ones.


    Surf
     
    #797     Jun 28, 2011
  8. Not sure, I'd have to look up what arbitrage is. I'm sure it's directional though. I base my analysis on crowd theory. The agreement or discord between five crowds trading on five different time scales (day traders= crowd 1, Swing traders = crowd 2, long term investors = crowd 5) will determine whether the movement is a trend or counter-trend, and on what time scale. When at least 3 consecutive crowds are in agreement and have the buying power to do so, I trade. And it goes well most of the time. In fact, my true percentages have been 19 wins of 24 with 2 break-evens this year.
     
    #798     Jun 28, 2011
  9. Do you personally you know any of those?
     
    #799     Jun 28, 2011
  10. That's a novel concept, j Joseph. Thanks!

    Surf
     
    #800     Jun 28, 2011
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