This is a little disingenuous - I provided you with a TA method that definitely works in the "trend following" thread. And I thought based on your reply that you checked it out (or had it checked out) and convinced yourself that it worked. I used to believe it was difficult to impossible to find TA methods that consistently make money. Now I'm convinced they're everywhere and not even particularly hard to find once you have the right mindset. And I've made good money off them - my own capital, so no AUM. But I HATE yachts.
Do stocks/futures/forex all trade the same from a technical charting/TA perspective? Im an aweful trader but have had a few good days trading oil (CL recently) A trading friend told me he'd made a killing trading BIIB today. I pulled up a chart, but cant really see any good entries/technical reasons that would get me in. Can a profitable TA trader show me any good entries/patterns for this chart?
For the timeframes and methods I look at, no. Every market is different. But there is a specific analysis procedure you can go through to understand how a specific market works and what technical methods and timeframes are likely to be profitable.
I have no idea what the "faber model" is. The technical method was to go long S&P for the next week when it closes a weekly bar over the 40 week EMA, and go short when it closes below. Which is far from optimal, but is simple to analyze. Facts about this method: - It's purely technical - It continually has a higher return and smaller drawdowns than the S&P, and this has been true for a very long period of time - Thus by definition it can't just be capturing beta (really, it's merit lies in selectively capturing negative beta) - The sample size is now well over 1000 weeks/decisions in the post Volcker era, so the sample size is plenty big for statistical analysis. - That analysis shows the that method's market outperforming results results are statistically significant to a very high degree. - The method was first published in the 80's and has worked consistently ever since despite the whole world knowing about it. In other words, it is not just a commentary on the past but something that has been proven via forward testing. Now, if someone chooses not to trade this method because they have something better (and there are plenty of better options - I no longer trade it) or the timeframe and risk profile are unattractive and that's great. There are some very simple tweaks that almost double the return by just slowing down the position switches by a few weeks. But for the purposes of an example, it doesn't need those tweaks. It is purely technical, it does work, you can get rich trading it, and I know at least one person who has.
I've found that they do. I've traded stocks, oil futures, stock index futures, and currency futures successfully using all the same chart patterns. I traded FX in a sim account successfully using the same patterns as well. I guess if you traded large size, you could make a "killing", but that was a pretty narrow price range yesterday. Some ways to trade it: Price moved up pretty good from the open. Buy the pullback at the opening price, stop and reverse short just below the opening range low. Buy a break of the opening range high, sell a break of the opening range low (selling an initial break of the low is a low probability trade because of the buying pressure off the open; waiting for further confirmation makes more sense). Since price moved up off the open, trail a buy stop just outside each pullback bar's high until a bar break takes you into a long position, stop below the opening range low. This took you long @ 96.57 for an excellent run of well over a point. Counter-trend: 10:50am ET bar is a bearish bar signaling a likely pullback to the 20-bar moving average at least. Offer to sell a pullback to the low of the last bar that printed a higher low (the 10:45am ET bar low of 97.59). Use a tight stop of .10 to .15 in case the bearish bar signal is wrong and a strong trend is on. Target is a pullback to the 20-bar MA. Bid to exit the short and reverse long at the 20-bar MA, stop .10 to .15 below the MA, target higher high. Once price fails to make a new high, tries to break out of the channel and fails again to make a new high (internal double top @ 97.63 and 97.65), short a break of the 20-bar moving average, initial target 96.72 (where the 10:11am ET bar high was interim resistance), then 96.57 (pullback pivot break zone), then a break of the opening range low. (The price swings from this entry on could've been traded in chunks, or you could've just held the position through the pullbacks and even added to it, since no bars closed above the now-falling 20-bar MA and there were no other decent long signals.) Sell a break of the previous pivot low at the 20-MA (the 97.10 low from the initial pullback off the new high), stop just above the breakout bar. If price fails to break at least .10 through that pivot low, move the stop to b/e and if stopped out, wait for more confirmation to the short side. Wait for price to make a lower low (break through the 97.10 pivot low), then sell a pullback to the 20-bar MA, stop of .10 to .15, target a lower low or a test of the opening range low. Virtual double bottom (2:40 and 3:00pm ET), trend reversal signal, buy an upside break of the bar that printed double bottom support, or wait to see if price can break the previous resistance of 96.31 and buy a pullback to the break of the bar that printed DB support. Stop placement can be just below DB support, initial target, test of previous support (96.52), if that breaks, test of next previous support (96.73) and if that breaks, target a break of next resistance (96.88-96.90), and so on. All these setups were based on a simple chart with S/R levels used for entries and targets, and a mobile S/R level (the 20-bar MA) used to enter on pullbacks in a trending move. Psssst...in very rare instances, it lasts forever.