And notice the bait-and-switch surf loves to engage in. He admits the market is only quasi-random when backed into a corner, but then he'll insist you only have a 50% chance of having a correct entry because the market is actually fully random! No telling when or if he'll ever stop trying to have it both ways.
Generally speaking basic TA such as buying at support and shorting resistance more often than not will work,no?
Do you know what Quasi random means? If you did, I think you would see that I am not being contradictory
I have such a system and I do trade in size in both the ES and the SPY....but only when I have the odds really in my favor. Sometimes that's only twice a day, other times its like 8 or more. I trade not because I have to anymore but because I fully love it and can't imagine doing anything else. Maybe when I get older I will slow down and find other interests that capture my attention like trading but that is at least 15 years away.
Somebody offers you a coin flip bet: if you lose, you lose your bet; if you win, you win double your bet. The coin is unbiased. You clearly have an edge. Will you go all in and bet your life savings? If not, why not?
I guess it depends on what you're definition of TA is. I tend to look at it as chart patterns and indicators. I use prices on an instrument, relative to the prices of other instruments. I try to buy what has been moving up lately. That's all. Some might say that's a form of price action I guess. A market timer might be a better term??? I am not a buy and hold advocate, or a fundemental guy, and I do believe the market can be beaten.
Yes you are. Quasi-random means only partly random. In the case of the market, the randomness is a variable over time that ranges from overwhelming to virtually nonexistent. It comes and goes. YOU act as if it is always present and will always nullify any entry strategy that seeks to go with the trend, and your position makes no sense.