This is my belief. I think that as the actors get more and more effective, exploiting other actors will be harder and harder to the point where the profit is less than the spread/commission. I do not believe in the EMH.
We can all have a good run in Vegas playing black or red at the roulette table in the Venetian Casino. Whatever works for you mate.
Sure, except the mathematical chance of a pattern having a lucky run for 2 years is ridiculously low. Check out my threads on my patterns or the 2nd gap rule and see it for yourself.... Edit: Holy crap, I have just checked, I posted the 2nd gap rule back in August 2006!!! So it has been almost 5 years, and the rule STILL works, as recently as a week ago....
You just don't get it, Pekelo--or is just schtick to get hits? Here is a snippet of a chat I had with renowned financial astrologer--- see any correlations with TA believers? remember this guy ran the NUMBER 1 most accurate newsletter for MANY MANY YEARS ALL FROM ASTROLOGY! do i need to repeat myself again? wake up! Dave: How did you go from being a technical analyst to a financial astrologer? Arch: On the day before my birthday, in 1963, the Wall Street Journal had a front-page article about three guys who were predicting the market using astrology. The credible one was Lt. Cmdr. David Williams who had been head of the purchasing department for Con Ed for 40 years and a Lt Cmdr in the Navy in the Big War and he was a fine gentleman. Williams had written a pamphlet called Astro-economics in 1955. I went out and bought it. Next to that pamphlet in this metaphysical bookstore was Donald Bradley Stock Market Prediction and he had developed a model using all two-planet pairs. I started keeping his model by hand and--thank God for computers! It was a lot of calculation but it was worth it. The market would follow that line for several months and then if would go off and do something else and for several months it would be off of that line and then it would come back onto it sometime later. Dave: What particular planets? Arch: All of them. Ten counting the Sun and moon. The Moon didn't count in them because it was too quick. What I found in following that for a while was that when there is a large configuration involving several planets it becomes what the Mandelbrot set, the chaos people, call a "strange attractor" which would take the market up or down to the date of this large configuration was most exact or to the last aspect between whatever planets were involved and then the market would turn and go the other way. Dave: When you say configuration, what do you mean? Arch: A number of planets in harmonic relationship. A harmonic relationship of one means two planets have the same longitude in space. Dave: They're in line with each other? Arch: Yes. Looking out from Earth, they're in the same place. A harmonic of two is like a full Moon where one is opposite the other separating the sky into two different parts, the left half and the right half. The second harmonic is 180 degrees, which is one-half of the 360 degree circle, and the third harmonic is 120 degrees which is one-third of the 260 degree circle. So a trine is 120 degrees and a square is 90 degrees. These are the ones most traditional astrologers use. Dave: You noticed that these configurations would affect the market,am I following you? Arch: Oh absolutely. When several planets are involved instead of just these two-planet pairs, it becomes a unique event and that's what makes it a strange attractor and the market will pull up to that day and then down or down to that day and then up. Dave: How many times a month do these strange attractors occur? Arch: Two to three times a year on a good year. Other than that they follow the Bradley somewhat
No correlation with this interview and current TA in the least. I do see a correlation between your fixation with belittling TA and a heroin addict though.
Correct. I don't get how a strategy (2nd gap rule) can consistently make money for 5 years with a 90% win rate by pure coincidence. I must be stupid.... The dragon pattern has been posted for 2+ years here, we just had a small dragon on the 5 mins chart... Purely coincidental....
@marketsurfer I'v posted twice in this thread hoping you would address some of the arguments I brought up (if one can call them that...). Here are two papers that I would like you to comment on: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2011/2011-001.pdf http://www.technicalanalysis.org.uk/technical-analysis.pdf The TED-talk linked here earlier does not argue that TA does not work. All patterns are not constructed/fake (as in not working to predict price movements) and may repeat them self more often than others. To bring the favor over to the trader counting spreads / commission is not the same thing, however. I'm not convinced that someone can make consistent profit using TA, but I do believe that you can set a probability on price.