It is a shame that some people on this thread seem to be more focussed on arguing with eachother than discussing the subject. Besides that it is sad that some of the participants in this thread are making statements based on nothing else then assumptions, like: - "The thread opener appears to know little about markets". - "Another failed trader not willing to take accountability for his failures". This could well be a case of "empty vessels make the most noise". But like I mentioned this is sad and as far as I'm concerned nothing more than that. What disturbs me more is that some people are actually trying to lure in traders by making offers like: - "I offer 1-to-1 mentoring for serious traders. Send me a private message for details". I made a clear statement and substantiated it with examples. If TA was my line of business then of course I would go against the statement. Nobody likes to see their business go broke. But it doesn't change the facts. So for those who are looking for a profitable way to trade, don't fall for the TA vendors. Shaka , Frits
Frits, I am NOT a vendor and do NOT want any PM's for 'help' so my opinion goes against your vendor accusation. TA works and has always worked BUT you cannot just take a chart pattern and trade it consistently without understanding what BUILT that pattern. Patterns fail when the underlying PA that created it doesn't justify a breaout or breakdown. Learn how to read the market sentiment and then you will see patterns follow thru and others not and be able to anticipate beforehand what will most likely happen. When you get to this point, you will look back on this thread and feel silly about yourself
Chart base TA is extremely deceitful to the point of being insidious. It looks like it works on the charts because charts inherently only exist in the past--they can only show what has happened-- Please see the video I posted earlier explaining this the way human minds work. Believe it or not, dat da facts and they are perfectly applicable to chart based TA. Using hedged words like "most likely", "the odds are", and my all time fave "perfect order" Without anything but anecdotal evidence is sad state of affairs. Folks just can't handle chaos. That's the bottom line. All these folks supporting chart TA have done is point a t anecdotal evidence, in fact the most fervent of the true believers wants to demonstrate in 100 markets in September instead od simply showing his acumen with one market right now. Bizarre responses and twisted logic are to be expected when the emperor has no clothes.
I still say that TA works but primarily because enough people think it does to cause it to become a self fulfilling prophecy.
Except when I post a chart and draw the line predicting how the market WILL move. It is all here posted in real time. I correctly predicted how the market would zig-zag in February, based on the gecko pattern.(I only got wrong the width, not the directions) I correctly predicted this rally from 1312 to 1390 SPX (this morning at 1369) using the dragon pattern. 75% of that prediction already came to pass. You can look them up, all documented on ET. Oh yeah, I did that in YOUR Journal. I must be either the luckiest son of a gun, or some TA works like hell. Now can we put this stupid thread to rest???
I'm supporting chart TA ONLY when the trader understands how to read the PA that built it. I use 'most likely' because PA can change on a dime if mkt altering news is released. Or at the critical moment of breakout/breakdown, we see strange PA that you wouldn't want to see at these moments. All this is a function of experience.
If you can intuitively read the chart, you have no argument from me. I am impressed with anyone who has this ability--- I have known a few. It's objective chart reading I am referring to, not subjective intuitive based stuff. Although I do believe those with the intuitive ability are exceedingly rare. Surf
Right after my post you posted what I perceived to be a passive aggressive attack on my post since you referenced a phrase i had used so I responded to you. I really don't think it's so rare and I also think that anyone stupid enough to blindly depend on a chart without understand what created it, the manner in which it was created, is a fool. I doubt anyone here arguing in favor of TA thinks that purely looking at a chart is the way to go without considering the PA or some other concoction that the trader uses.
It does no good Pekelo, pages back I asked marketsurfer to comment on the consistency of the TA trading in the ES journal thread and he conveniently ignored the question. He is only here to do whatever is necessary, including lie to get material for his website rants. You've seen his journal, he's a train wreak.