Technical Analysis = CRAP

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Frits, Apr 27, 2011.

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  1. Frits


    It surprises me that some traders still have the illusion that by using technical analysis they are able to predict the direction of the market.

    Let's say for the sake of the subject that today some brilliant mind came up with an indicator that indeed is able to predict the market. Let's call this indicator "moneymaker" :D ! Now don't go running to the fridge to get that bottle of Dom Perignon just yet...

    A) At a certain point in time (let's call this "T") the moneymaker signals that the market is about to go up!

    You buy and with that you enter a long position. Smart move because the moneymaker signals a rising price.

    B) At T+11 (or 19, 37 or 76) the moneymaker signals that the market is about to go down again.

    You sell and with that you close your long position and collect your profits. Smart move since the moneymaker just signals a falling price. Profits in the pocket open that Dom Perignon the sabrage way (with a sword)! Or...

    All seems very logic right?
    Now I have two questions for you:
    1. Who is dumb enough to sell in situation A? Would you sell? Who the f*ck is going short while the moneymaker, the brilliant technical indicator indicates that prices are going to rise!? So you can buy all you want, but there is no seller!
    2. Who is dumb enough to buy in situation B? Would you buy? Who the h*ll is going long while the moneymaker indicates that prices are falling!? So you can sell all you want, but there is no buyer!

    If, yes IF technical analysis is able to predict the market, that same magical ability would kill the ability to predict the direction of the market by itself.

    Whenever you enter the market you have a 50% that it goes up and a 50% chance that it goes down. The trick is to limit your losses and ALWAYS let your profits run.

    Quit following the advice on the use of TA that all the scammers on the internet try to give you in return for hundreds or thousands of dollars. They are the ones that failed in becoming profitable by trading. And now they are trying to make money by teaching you about technical indicators. Apart from the fact that it is useless, the info on TA is also to be found for free on the internet.

    Shaka :cool: !

    Frits Altenburg
    P.s. this advice was for free :)
  2. I am sorry to find out you do not understand TA. Scanners are trivial implmentations that cannot incorporate all the heuristics of an experienced analyst.
  3. TA works great for me. :confused:
  4. The obvious flaw here is that not everyone has access to, and understanding of, the same technical indicators.

    So the answer to your question is that your counterparty is someone who is too ignorant about the market to know that the indicator in question accurately predicts price movement.

  5. Truff


    another failed trader not willing to take accountability for his failures. To say TA does not work is just an ignorant statement.
  6. Where the hell did you pull that statistic from?
  7. Whaaa???

    You obviously haven't learned how to read and gauge price action correctly!

  8. Really? If you could increase your actual odds of success above 50/50 on every entry, you would become the house effectively cornering any market given enough capital.

    The OP makes sense.
  9. My entries are not random.


  10. I'm sure they are based on your system that isn't random within itself. But they are entering a Quasi random system called the market. If it wasn't, it couldn't exist.
    #10     Apr 27, 2011
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