TBT still falling

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Digs, Nov 24, 2009.

  1. Digs


    Go figure..

    FED purchase plan is done (I assume)..

    Stocks up like crazy

    Gold UP..

    Yet long bond rates havent moved

    Its unnaturally low...

    Todays 5yr bond sold really well the newsticker said..

    yet 30yr has not been doing so good..

    7 yr paper tomorrow...

    Rates should be heading soon..do you concurr
  2. The bond bears have been predicting yields going to the moon since the early 90s. Every single bond sell off was the supposed to be the start of a secular bond bear market.

    I'm still waiting.

    JGB's yield 1-2%. Since a decade or so. Shows that nothing is impossible.

  3. harkm


    You would think so but this market is heavily manipulated. The Fed is still buying mortgage backed securities and the sellers of those securities just switch the money into treasuries so really the Fed is still propping the treasuries up. Also, now countries around the world are buying dollars to keep their own currency from rising and then they park those dollars in treasuries. It is hard to figure out short term. Long term you know they are going down big.
  4. Gold will slump a little toward Christmas, but I doubt it will ever see $1000 again. Qtr 1 2010, get ready for the fall...
  5. Digs


    .."Also, now countries around the world are buying dollars to keep their own currency from rising and then they park those dollars in treasuries."..

    TBT is long bonds, not short term..

    Countries (China) are buying short term...
  6. harkm


    Yes, but every time there is a successful short term auction longs seem to rally too. I have been long TBT for quite a while and watch it very closely. What is your view?
  7. I've been trying to hunt this article down for almost two weeks.

    "The Q2 Flow of Funds Report published by the Federal Reserve revealed that the Federal Reserve purchased as much as half of the newly issued treasuries in the second quarter.14 This means that the Federal Reserve isn’t merely supporting the market for US treasuries… it is the market for US treasuries."


  8. "The FDIC wants the banks to prepay for their 2010-2012 assessments... The FDIC has to essentially borrow funds from the same banks it insures" !!!!

    It's ok because our financial system was deemed a joke when we let Fannie Mae raise $7B in straight preferreds 2 months before nationalizing them and wiping out the equity.

    Edit: Great read btw, thanks for the link!
  9. My pleasure. I have some others at work, they are hard copies though. I'll take a peek tomorrow see if there are any pertinent.
  10. It's the same wall of cash going into all assets indiscriminately: equities, corps, govt bonds, you name it...

    A rising tide lifts all boats, including long-dated treasuries.
    #10     Nov 25, 2009