began to leg into March atm/otm calls; gonna look at this as a contrarian play. by early next year these should be significantly higher since market will be looking out 6 months or more from that time-frame. I guess this is more of a LT investment than a trade, although I could sell front month calls depending on how that looks from now into end of year.
Well guys, Friday's rout of equities ONCE AGAIN had TBT cratering as money poured into Treasuries. Is this the last "hurrah" for bonds ? I think so. All of the bond shorties have been so "smoked"....and that is a great precursor to the move up in interest rates from all-time historic lows. This may not be a fast move, so shorting puts may be better than long call spreads here.
I agree this is probably another once-in-a-lifetime opportunity like back in 2000 when shorting was a ticket to quick wealth. The only Q is timing. When do you enter into TB./ I had -March- calls and a OK profit for a week or two; frankly I sold them on the pullback not wanting to waste capital and time in this inane market. So far as buying and holding TBT away in an 'investment' account; that's likely a good plan. Only does it go to 15 first?
15 would be a new worldwide recession coupled with a Greek default. Not saying it cannot happen. I definitely could.
This morning TBT bounced like a super-ball off of 18-even...despite the rout in equities. This could be "the sign". Of course, that was a 52 week low.....
No, just following the market, which as we all know, is pretty random. What I like about the TBT long play is that it implicitly has a bottom as interest rates fall to near zero. When equities go into a "risk on" scenario, this guy is likely to rise. The issue is when. There is a decent amount of option volume for near-the-money options....and the spread is only nickle.