TBA99 - Trade Journal 2012

Discussion in 'Journals' started by TBA99, Jan 11, 2012.

  1. TBA99

    TBA99

    Project Update:

    SIM Testing Phase 2 began January 1, 2013. Unfortunately, there was not enough time to post a daily journal to ET.

    In the past 11 months the project has continued to push forward. The strategy was completed in May 2013. Execution tests are ongoing.

    The hedge strategy has been designed specifically for stocks with a price range of $40.00 to $100.00, an average volume of 2M, and a daily price range of >$0.85.

    The strategy uses a mixture of different trading styles; long term, swing, and daytrading with an overall bias to the upside. Even though the bias is to the upside, the strategy is also dynamic, and can adapt to negative market conditions.

    All tests are performed in real-time (forward testing) using the IB paper trader. Trades are discretionary (not automated). To try and simulate the market as closely as possible, volume trades are initiated using 200 shares, limit orders are used to initiate trades, pre-market and after-market trades have been limited. Trade history is documented using the IB reports feature.

    The trading system has been designed to allow monitoring/trading of six individual stocks using two accounts. Both sides of the trade (long/short) can be held at the same time.

    The stocks used in the testing are: APA, CAT, CTXS, NOV, OXY, and SINA. These stocks have been used throughout the testing period: January 1, 2013 – November 12, 2013.


    Stock Prices:

    Stock..........DEC 31, 2013(CLOSE)..........NOV 12, 2013(CLOSE).............P/L$............................P/L%

    APA...................$78.50................................$89.71...........................+$11.21........................+14.28%

    CAT...................$89.61................................$83.85.............................-$5.76.........................-6.42%

    CTXS.................$65.62................................$60.95.............................-$4.67.........................-7.11%

    NOV...................$65.85................................$82.55..........................+$16.70........................+25.36%

    OXY...................$75.17................................$95.64..........................+$20.47........................+27.23%

    SINA..................$50.22................................$75.91..........................+$25.69........................+51.15%

    TOT/AVG........$424.97..............................$488.61........................+$63.64.......................+14.98%


    Testing Results:

    Account.............JAN 2, 2013..........NOV 12, 2013............P/L$..................P/L%

    Account 1.............$83115.59.............$118051.70...........+$34936.11............+42.03%

    Account 2.............$80166.93..............$74484.50..............-$5682.43.............-7.09%

    Total/AVG........$163282.52...........$192536.20..........+$29253.68..........+17.92%


    Current Return: 17.92%

    Max. Return (AUG 13, 2013): 20.26%

    Max. Draw Down (APR 19 2013): (-15.64%)



    The current return of 17.92% is still well under the target goal of 30% set for this project. Tweaking the strategy execution is ongoing. Execution has been satisfactory at best. There is lots of room for improvement, especially in the area of trade entry/exit and reducing overall the number of trades.

    Even if the strategy doesn’t meet its target goal of 30% in 2013, the current results warrant that SIM Testing Phase 3 goes ahead in January 2014. The strategy will be tested for volume, where the volume will be increased 10X the current volume to 2000 shares per trade. This SIM project is scheduled to end on December 31, 2014. It is hoped that at some point during 2014 that the system will be able to make the transitional jump from SIM to a live account.
     
    #71     Nov 13, 2013