TBA99 Phase 3 Strategy Testing (SIM Only)

Discussion in 'Journals' started by TBA99, Nov 30, 2013.

  1. TBA99

    TBA99

    Results: 2013-12-09 to 2014-01-10

    For project results and more information go to www.linksint.com

    Twitter Live Calls:

    Calls: 23
    Wins: 22
    Loses: 1
    Win PCT: .9565
    Total Gain: $13.03
    AVG. Gain: $0.6066
    Open Trades: 5

    For live calls on Twitter go to www.twitter.com/99tba

    Note:

    Phase 3 testing remains on hold. In the meantime I will continue to concentrate on calling live trades on Twitter. It will be interesting to see what the Win PCT. and AVG. Gain per trade is once the trade count reaches 150. Unfortunately, I won’t have the time to post a daily commentary on the called trades. Overall, it has been a pretty good run so far. I can think of only one badly executed trade and it’s not the trade that is recorded in the lost column. I will be ramping up the number of live calls in the coming weeks. Also, a wider variety of stocks (based on trading criteria) will be included in the live calls.
    The website has finally been updated with the latest results. In the future, I will try and post the results at the end of the trading day (after 16:00 EST).
     
    #11     Jan 11, 2014
  2. TBA99

    TBA99

    Results: 2013-12-09 to 2014-01-17

    For project results and more information go to www.linksint.com

    Stock Trading List:

    Stock ********* Dec. 6 (Close) ********** Jan. 17(Close)

    APA &nbsp************** $89.02 ****************** $84.31
    CAT &nbsp************** $85.50 ****************** $91.44
    CTXS &nbsp************* $60.03 ****************** $60.44
    NOV &nbsp************** $80.19 ****************** $76.97
    OXY &nbsp ************** $92.65 ****************** $90.57
    SINA &nbsp************** $77.31 ****************** $75.02

    Twitter Live Calls:

    Calls: 32
    Wins: 31
    Loses: 1
    Win PCT: .9688
    Total Gain: $16.68
    AVG. Gain: $0.5212
    Open Trades: 11

    Trade Rank: 45

    For live calls on Twitter go to www.twitter.com/99tba


    Note:

    Live calls on Twitter this week were disappointing. The trade rank (personal evaluation) for this week is 45 scored out of 100. Simply put, I didn’t execute very well. I fumbled the Ex. dividend plays for both CAT and APA. Cut short CTXS move up on Wednesday. If my current holdings were liquidated at the current stock prices the net gain would only be $5.20. On the plus side, I am seeing lots of opportunities for profits but just haven’t been able to pull the trigger (or stay off the trigger) and execute properly. Hopefully, I can improve the strategy execution next week.

    Live call results are posted daily to the website after 4:00PM.

    Disclaimer:

    This is a trade simulation using real-time data. No stocks are bought or sold. The information accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Use at your own risk.
     
    #12     Jan 18, 2014
  3. TBA99

    TBA99

    Results: 2013-12-09 to 2014-01-24

    For project results and more information go to www.linksint.com


    Stock Trading List:

    Stock ***** Dec. 6 (Close) *****Jan. 24(Close)**** P/L($) ***** P/L(%)

    APA *********** $89.02 ********** $82.42 ********* (-$6.60) ***** (-7.41%)
    CAT *********** $85.50 ********** $86.17 ********** $0.67 ******* 0.78%
    CTXS ********** $60.03 ********** $58.89 ********* (-$1.14) ***** (-1.19%)
    NOV *********** $80.19 ********** $74.00 ********* (-$6.19) ***** (-7.72%)
    OXY *********** $92.65 ********** $88.00 ********* (-$4.65) ***** (-5.02%)
    SINA ********** $77.31 ********** $70.00 ********* (-$7.31) ***** (-9.46%)


    Twitter Live Calls:

    Calls: 56
    Wins: 41
    Loses: 1
    Win PCT: .7321
    Gain: $23.10
    AVG. Gain: $0.4125
    Open Trades: 14
    Open Gain: $-35.78
    TOTAL Gain: -$12.68
    Trade Rank: 50

    For live calls on Twitter go to www.twitter.com/99tba


    Intraday Play:

    APA: ***** +$4.66
    CAT: ***** +$1.81
    CTXS: **** +$3.80
    NOV: ***** +$5.42
    OXY: ***** +$5.49
    SINA:***** +$1.63


    Note:

    With the market heading south this week including a 2.09% S&P500 selloff on Friday, the strategy overall gain turned negative (-$12.68). Since the strategy bias is to the upside this loss was to be expected. Repositioning of current positions through intraday play has been positive across the stocks being traded. Given this is a long term strategy this repositioning should lead to higher profits over time. The trade rank for this week was 50. Short side execution continues to be a weak point in the trading game. Next week is an earnings play for CAT, CTXS, NOV, and OXY. The main goal will be to reduce the risk of a large gap down due to a negative earnings report.

    Live call results are posted daily to the website after 4:00PM.


    Disclaimer:

    This is a trade simulation using real-time data. No stocks are bought or sold. The information accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Use at your own risk.
     
    #13     Jan 25, 2014
  4. TBA99

    TBA99

    Results: 2013-12-09 to 2014-01-31

    For project results and more information go to www.linksint.com.


    Stock Trading List:

    Stock ***** Dec. 6 (Close) *****Jan. 31(Close)**** P/L($) ***** P/L(%)

    APA *********** $89.02 ********** $80.26 ******** (-$8.76) ****** (-9.84%)
    CAT *********** $85.50 ********** $93.91 ********* $8.41 ******** 9.84%
    CTXS ********** $60.03 ********** $54.07 ******** (-$5.96) ****** (-9.93%)
    NOV *********** $80.19 ********** $75.01 ******** (-$5.18) ****** (-6.46%)
    OXY *********** $92.65 ********** $87.57 ******** (-$5.08) ****** (-5.48%)
    SINA ********** $77.31 ********** $65.19 ******** (-$12.12) ***** (-15.68%)


    Twitter Live Calls:

    Calls: 73
    Wins: 54
    Loses: 1
    Win PCT: .7397
    Gain: $32.25
    AVG. Gain: $0.4418
    Open Trades: 18
    Open Gain: $-58.71
    TOTAL Gain: -$26.46
    Trade Rank: 50

    For live calls on Twitter go to www.twitter.com/99tba


    Intraday Trading:

    APA: ***** +$6.43
    CAT: ***** +$2.76
    CTXS: **** +$4.50
    NOV: ***** +$6.74
    OXY: ***** +$7.60
    SINA:***** +$4.22


    Note:

    The P/L fell again this week to ($-26.46) with the trade rank at 50. Intraday trading was positive across all stocks. Execution of the strategy is still being fine tuned. Better long term entry points, the use of trade stops in more risky trading situations, and trading a wider variety of stocks (that meet the trade criteria) are objectives for the upcoming weeks. The number of trades on the losing side is also expected to increase as stop loss trades and profit locking trades are used more frequently.

    Trade results are posted daily to the website after 4:00PM.


    Disclaimer:

    This is a trade simulation using real-time data. No stocks are bought or sold. The information accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Use at your own risk.
     
    #14     Feb 3, 2014
  5. TBA99

    TBA99

    Results: 2013-12-09 to 2014-02-07

    For project results and more information go to www.linksint.com.


    Stock Trading List:

    Stock ***** Dec. 6 (Close) *****Feb. 07(Close)**** P/L($) ***** P/L(%)

    APA *********** $89.02 ********** $81.39 ******** (-$7.63) ****** (-8.57%)
    CAT *********** $85.50 ********** $94.86 ********* $9.36 ******** 10.95%
    CTXS ********** $60.03 ********** $55.31 ******** (-$4.72) ****** (-7.86%)
    NOV *********** $80.19 ********** $75.03 ******** (-$5.16) ****** (-6.43%)
    OXY *********** $92.65 ********** $90.56 ******** (-$2.09) ****** (-2.26%)
    SINA ********** $77.31 ********** $67.12 ******** (-$10.19) ***** (-13.18%)


    Twitter Live Calls:

    Calls: 93
    Wins: 62
    Loses: 3
    Win PCT: .6667
    Gain: $36.13
    AVG. Gain: $0.3885

    Open Trades: 28
    Open Gain: ($-41.49)

    TOTAL Gain: (-$5.36)

    Trade Rank: 55


    For live calls on Twitter go to www.twitter.com/99tba.


    Intraday Trading:

    APA: ***** +$4.90
    CAT: ***** +$3.13
    CTXS: **** +$8.39
    NOV: ***** +$7.32
    OXY: ***** +$8.07
    SINA:***** +$4.32


    Note:

    Finally some market movement upward. It has been a rough ride as of late, especially since the strategy is biased to the upside. These market selloff periods actually help a trader to improve their defensive risk strategies. My weakness on the recent movement down has been the initial long term entry and share accumulation points. APA, NOV, OXY, and SINA were examples as entry and accumulation points lacked price support. CTXS was caught in an earnings play. CAT has been strong but my current short trades still could have been executed at a profit. Trade rank this week is a 55. Intraday repositioning is still positive across the board. Even with the market selloff the strategy TOTAL gain is only down (-$5.36). Any market movement up in the coming week should push the gain into positive territory.

    A trading results spreadsheet (excel) has been added to the website. A section recording the live twitter call events will be added to the same spreadsheet in the near future.

    Trade results are posted daily to the website after 4:00PM.


    Disclaimer:

    This is a trade simulation using real-time data. No stocks are bought or sold. The information accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Use at your own risk.
     
    #15     Feb 8, 2014
  6. TBA99

    TBA99

    Results: 2013-12-09 to 2014-02-14

    For project results and more information go to www.linksint.com.


    Stock Trading List:

    Stock ***** Dec. 6 (Close) *****Feb. 14(Close)**** P/L($) ***** P/L(%)

    APA *********** $89.02 ********** $83.39 ******** (-$5.63) ****** (-6.32%)
    CAT *********** $85.50 ********** $96.55 ********* $11.05 ******* 12.92%
    CTXS ********** $60.03 ********** $57.14 ******** (-$2.89) ****** (-4.81%)
    NOV *********** $80.19 ********** $76.42 ******** (-$3.77) ****** (-4.70%)
    OXY *********** $92.65 ********** $95.76 ********* $2.09 ******** 3.36%
    SINA ********** $77.31 ********** $70.00 ********* (-$7.31) ******* (-9.46)


    Twitter Live Calls:

    Calls: 111
    Wins: 79
    Loses: 3
    Win PCT: .7117
    Gain: $61.69
    AVG. Gain: $0.5558

    Open Trades: 29
    Open Gain: ($-42.80)

    TOTAL Gain: $18.89

    Trade Rank: 65


    For live calls on Twitter go to www.twitter.com/99tba.


    Intraday Trading:

    APA: ***** +$11.53
    CAT: ***** +$4.02
    CTXS: **** +$12.05
    NOV: ***** +$7.63
    OXY: ***** +$19.32
    SINA:***** +$7.14


    Note:

    The market pushed up this week as the overall TOTAL gain moved into the black again at $18.89. Much better trades this week, as the trade rank hit 70. Intraday trading is solid across all stocks. Best intraday trades of the week came on the OXY news play on Friday. Sold a volume block at $95.70, repurchased at $94.97, resold at $95.95, and repurchased at $95.58. Good volatility. Live calls can be checked out on the Twitter account.

    After running the project out of my home for so many years I have finally secured office space. I expect to move into the new location within the next month. This move is a big plus, especially from a concentration point of view.

    The goal this week is to build on the improving trade rank. Intraday trading has been solid. I expect the overall TOTAL gain to increase again this week.

    Trade results are posted daily to the website after 4:00PM.


    Disclaimer:

    This is a trade simulation using real-time data. No stocks are bought or sold. The information accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Use at your own risk.
     
    #16     Feb 16, 2014
  7. TBA99

    TBA99

    Results: 2013-12-09 to 2014-02-21

    For project results and more information go to www.linksint.com.


    Stock Trading List:

    Stock ***** Dec. 6 (Close) *****Feb. 21(Close)**** P/L($) ***** P/L(%)

    APA *********** $89.02 ********** $84.56 ******** (-$4.46) ****** (-5.01%)
    CAT *********** $85.50 ********** $97.50 ********* $12.00 ******* 19.99%
    CTXS ********** $60.03 ********** $59.80 ******** (-$0.23) ****** (-0.38%)
    NOV *********** $80.19 ********** $74.80 ******** (-$5.39) ****** (-6.72%)
    OXY *********** $92.65 ********** $95.39 ********* $2.74 ******** 2.96%
    SINA ********** $77.31 ********** $72.95 ********* (-$4.36) ******* (-5.64)


    Twitter Live Calls:

    Calls: 122
    Wins: 87
    Loses: 3
    Win PCT: .7131
    Gain: $73.88
    AVG. Gain: $0.6056

    Open Trades: 32
    Open Gain: ($-59.43)

    TOTAL Gain: $14.45

    Trade Rank: 40


    For live calls on Twitter go to www.twitter.com/99tba.


    Intraday Trading:

    APA: ***** +$17.48
    CAT: ***** +$5.07
    CTXS: **** +$16.10
    NOV: ***** +$8.77
    OXY: ***** +$19.32
    SINA:***** +$7.14


    Note:

    Strategy net gain remained positive for the week at $14.45. Trade rank fell to 40 this week. Current initial entry points and some of the swing trade positions point to a weakness in the strategy, thus affecting the overall profitability. New custom indicators will be tested this week to keep the strategy on track. Intraday trading remains positive across the board. The trading results spreadsheet posted on the website now contains a complete record of live call events on Twitter matched to the recorded trades. The goal for this week is to keep the strategy in positive territory while the new indicators are being tested.

    Trade results are posted daily to the website after 4:00PM.


    Disclaimer:

    This is a trade simulation using real-time data. No stocks are bought or sold. The information accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Use at your own risk.
     
    #17     Feb 24, 2014
  8. TBA99

    TBA99

    Results: 2013-12-09 to 2014-02-28

    For project results and more information go to www.linksint.com.


    Stock Trading List:

    Stock ***** Dec. 6 (Close) *****Feb. 28(Close)**** P/L($) ***** P/L(%)

    APA *********** $89.02 ********** $79.29 ******** (-$9.73) ****** (-10.93%)
    CAT *********** $85.50 ********** $96.97 ********* $11.47 ******* 13.42%
    CTXS ********** $60.03 ********** $60.05 ********** $0.02 ******** 0.03%
    NOV *********** $80.19 ********** $77.04 ******** (-$3.15) ****** (-3.93%)
    OXY *********** $92.65 ********** $96.52 ********* $3.87 ******** 4.18%
    SINA ********** $77.31 *********** $68.33 ******** (-$8.98) ****** (-11.62%)


    Twitter Live Calls:

    Calls: 141
    Wins: 105
    Loses: 6
    Win PCT: .7447
    Gain: $82.66
    AVG. Gain: $0.5862

    Open Trades: 30
    Open Gain: ($-73.78)

    TOTAL Gain: $8.88

    Trade Rank: 50


    For live calls on Twitter go to www.twitter.com/99tba.


    Intraday Trading:

    *** Net Gain (New) ***

    APA: ***** (-$12.44)
    CAT: ***** (-$4.98)
    CTXS: **** +$5.48
    NOV: ***** +$5.86
    OXY: ***** +$12.33
    SINA:***** +$2.63


    Note:

    The strategy net gain remained positive for this week at $8.88. Trade rank was 50. Custom indicators were implemented this week. Results were positive and the indicators will be used in all future trading. Intraday trading P/L of individual stocks will now include the open trades in the results. Hit 100th win this week. Not happy will the overall return. Plenty of tweaking left to get the strategy to its optimal point. Still leaving a lot of profit on the table. Will require a bit more patience on the trade exit.

    Trade results are posted daily to the website after 4:00PM.


    Disclaimer:

    This is a trade simulation using real-time data. No stocks are bought or sold. The information accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Use at your own risk.
     
    #18     Mar 1, 2014
  9. TBA99

    TBA99

    Results: 2013-12-09 to 2014-03-07

    For project results and more information go to www.linksint.com.


    Stock Trading List:

    Stock ***** Dec. 6 (Close) *****Mar. 07(Close)**** P/L($) ***** P/L(%)

    APA *********** $89.02 ********** $80.05******** (-$8.97) ****** (-10.08%)
    CAT *********** $85.50 ********** $97.05 ********* $11.55 ******* 13.51%
    CTXS ********** $60.03 ********** $60.99 ********** $0.96 ******** 1.60%
    NOV *********** $80.19 ********** $79.06 ******** (-$1.13) ****** (-1.41%)
    OXY *********** $92.65 ********** $97.13 ********* $4.48 ******** 4.84%
    SINA ********** $77.31 *********** $72.41 ******** (-$4.90) ****** (-6.34%)


    Twitter Live Calls:

    TOTAL Gain: $20.20

    Trade Rank: 55


    Calls: 162
    Wins: 119
    Loses: 14
    Win PCT: .7346
    Gain: $93.28
    AVG. Gain: $0.5758
    Open Trades: 29
    Open Gain: ($-73.08)


    For live calls on Twitter go to www.twitter.com/99tba.


    Intraday Trading:

    Individual Stocks - Net Gain

    APA: ***** (-$7.99)
    CAT: ***** (-$5.13)
    CTXS: **** +$3.80
    NOV: ***** +$5.99
    OXY: ***** +$13.76
    SINA:***** +$9.77


    Note:

    The strategy net gain hit the highest point for the year at $20.20. Trade rank was 55. The strategy is currently being tested with low volume (200 share blocks) using 2 accounts with starting balances of ~100K. As of the close today the current return for the year is ~ 2% - commissions. Therefore the forecasted yearly return is ~8% - commissions which is well under the target goal of 25%.

    Trade results are posted daily to the website after 4:00PM.


    Disclaimer:

    This is a trade simulation using real-time data. No stocks are bought or sold. The information accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Use at your own risk.
     
    #19     Mar 8, 2014