Discussion in 'Trading' started by Restricted, Apr 6, 2004.
Only 32 years old as well.
This morning I took a load of TASR at around 81. But it was hardly moving, so I dropped it. Only 15 minutes later it want from 81 to 95!!!
I could have retired with the load I had..
Is it just me, or does this look like a company that will eventually go bankrupt due to lawsuits?
People who know how to enter shorts properly are gonna make a killing on this one
I believe TASR will be another ebay. A stock that has a huge runup and looks extremely overvalued but one that will eventually grow into its valuation.
The reason for this move is that TASR is actually selling a tangible product that has huge growth potential. Sure, it may be 100% higher than where it "should" be, but this stock will be around for a long time.
So you think a maker of stun guns will eventually grow
into a true BILLION dollar business BEFORE it gets priced
correctly and loses a chunk of its value???
Naahhh....even EBAY went from 63 to 13 before it went back up.
There is money to be made by shorts. Only problem is....most
have no clue how to short
Big difference - Ebay's product hasn't killed anyone.
1.) TASR in no way has a "lock" on the market in stun-guns. Competition can emerge with new technologies totally bypassing TASR.
2.) Taser's range of 15-21 feet has a deterrant value but is a joke when it comes to real action situations. Forget about crime fighting, one of the most common uses for the Taser nationwide has been to prevent suicides, a little known fact!
3.) Product cost/selling price can go down dramatically even as volumes pick up if the end-consumer makes a price based decision. Remember, states and local counties are not awash in money - - - many of them are starving for funds even for essential budget items.
4.) Product Liability issues can crop up. The 40 deaths thus far may be "ok" by the company and the coroner, but may not be "ok" by safety regulators. Remember, NJ and MA banned Taser guns, and more states may follow.
5.) High awareness and low penetration rates in scalable volumes proves that Taser is only a "test" product and is one of the several technologies out there that are in the marketplace. Remember, the recent San Jose Police Department order was less that $800,000 dollars (for the 11th largest metropolitan area in the United States, and 3rd largest in California) despite all of the hype surrounding this order. Already thousands of police departments use the Taser nationwide, but in a very limited fashion.
6.) What about Management?
A bunch of promotional types rather than hard-headed realists. Read their press release on being invited to be listed on the Nasdaq National Market and press teh opening buzzer. It was "amatuer" hour, and reflects a shop mentality.
7.) At 93 times 2004 earnings for a company that is a "one-trick pony" that has limited application, TASR is priced for PERFECTION.
My take on TASR. The stock is probably worth $10 a share on paper, but anyone that tries to short this stock shouldn't be trading for a living. This is the last stock you should be trying to short. But to each their own. There's only one way you are going to learn and that is to put some money on the table. This stock could easily see 150 before it sees 50.
All true, but it's a great trading stock.
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