Discussion in 'Politics' started by harrytrader, Feb 10, 2003.
Break zone under 7780
To whom are you posting?
Is this another potential crash alert?
The break was not made today so we will perhaps do the target in 2 weeks rather than 1 week if we have a consolidation before.
i knew this thread was by you, harry, when i saw the title.
you are..some guy, apparently "not from around here" as they used to say..
Apparently he wants some sort of credit in case the market actually drops.
See the picture which represents the theoritical path of local tops and bottoms on spot and future calculated on daily scale - but which impacts intraday scale when it enters its probability zone - but one should understand that it is the same product so that calculation made on future has impact on the spot:
So today we have followed the path down to the local minima of 7804 on my model (real low 7801) then rebounced sharply and made a U-turn but which was limited to the support of 7861.49 in theory (in real we made a pause at 8760.80) which constitutes a higher low and the slide down didn't continue.
And if he doesn't drop huh
Stupidity, what's your need to make a trading plan if you are Nostradamus
Look at the title of my chart it is said "Plan". Plan are paths - like in the forest - the lines are nothing else than that.
I have given the validation zone. It hasn't been hit. The important is not to ne right it is to know when you are right, wrong, or undecided.
just a simple question which deserves a y/n answer:
do you make money trading this 'system' of yours?
I will demonstrate that a mechanical trading system which will use discretionary rules like a human can outperform the best traders in the world: It will participate in the world trading championship. His code name is Big Yellow to reference to Big Blue which beats Kasparov at chess.
As for me yes it has never been so easy.
But the real performance will be kept secret (and I have still to do thorough backtesting so as to be sure that nothing is left to hasard) since we are negotiating partnership : this is a physical model in competition with a few others like one of the Sante Fe institute and everybody keeps that secret see for example the interview of Doyne Farmer "Do not say anything about performance "
Cracking Wall Street :
"By late 1993, the Prediction Company reported success in predicting markets with "computerized intuition" in live trading. They refused, however, to comment about their performance. Their agreement with their investors prohibits them from talking about this, as much as the talkative ex-physicists are dying to do so. They were told: "Do not say anything about performance -- anything!" They won't say how much money they trade, or exactly where. (Farmer asked me to let him vet these closing paragraphs because "if I inadvertently tell you something I shouldn't, it could blow our contract with the Swiss Bank Corporation. You know the Swiss -- they are secretive to the point of paranoia.") Indeed, at his request, I removed the hints of what kind of markets they track that slipped out during his conversations with me. "
In fact at the moment I'm just making fun with people on forum but probably after discussing with my collegues we won't make the model available for the public for long except for the talents we would like to detect for trading our system.
Our model is far more ambitious than the one of Santa Fe which just look at pattern detection whereas we are looking at predicting the whole paths of the market at term even on the sub micro-cycle. At the moment I just limit the ambition for usual daytrading activity.
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