Taper talk

Discussion in 'Economics' started by drownpruf, Dec 11, 2013.

  1. "We'll be watching" will be in the release. No mention of a date or reduction in notional. No friggin' way the bearded one would do it in front of XMAS and the transition to Yellen.

    Remains at $85B
    No date
    "We're diligent" yada yada.
  2. Now I am hearing a reduction to $70B.
  3. Having watched currencies for a few months, it seems that any theories posited the day before an event/announcement is intended to get retail customers leaning the wrong way, thereby providing the liquidity needed for a sustained big move.

    The rumor is enhanced if a sharp counter-move also takes place.

    For example, today's taper talk, it's intended to draw shorts into the EUR/USD. To help the rumor, a sharp move from 1.3775 to 1.3720 took place this morning.

    I'm expecting another downward move between now and Midnight EST. It'll then eventually settle between 1.3750-1.3770 until the announcement

    My bet - big breakout to towards 1.39 tomorrow and a test of 1.40 by Friday.
  4. I thought for sure there would be nothing at first, but now a few things point to a pretty good probability of some sort of reduction. I would put it over 50%, which seems to not be the consensus at all.
  5. nth


    Good point. I don't think He wants to see the market go into withdrawals while He is still there.

    I don't see any changes hitting the fan tomorrow.
  6. You might find this informative.
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  7. CenFlo


    I see the percentages on the image, do we have a true over / under on taper / no taper??

    Even odds, or is there a true feeling of what's going to happen, if anything?

  8. where does it come from?...in whose opinion?
  9. Pity the fool that got his order executed at 1.3846....
  10. Woo, it's taper time :cool:
    #10     Dec 18, 2013