Taper talk

Discussion in 'Economics' started by drownpruf, Dec 11, 2013.

  1. "We'll be watching" will be in the release. No mention of a date or reduction in notional. No friggin' way the bearded one would do it in front of XMAS and the transition to Yellen.

    Remains at $85B
    No date
    "We're diligent" yada yada.
     
  2. Now I am hearing a reduction to $70B.
     
  3. Having watched currencies for a few months, it seems that any theories posited the day before an event/announcement is intended to get retail customers leaning the wrong way, thereby providing the liquidity needed for a sustained big move.

    The rumor is enhanced if a sharp counter-move also takes place.

    For example, today's taper talk, it's intended to draw shorts into the EUR/USD. To help the rumor, a sharp move from 1.3775 to 1.3720 took place this morning.

    I'm expecting another downward move between now and Midnight EST. It'll then eventually settle between 1.3750-1.3770 until the announcement

    My bet - big breakout to towards 1.39 tomorrow and a test of 1.40 by Friday.
     
  4. I thought for sure there would be nothing at first, but now a few things point to a pretty good probability of some sort of reduction. I would put it over 50%, which seems to not be the consensus at all.
     
  5. nth

    nth

    Good point. I don't think He wants to see the market go into withdrawals while He is still there.

    I don't see any changes hitting the fan tomorrow.
     
  6. You might find this informative.
     
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  7. CenFlo

    CenFlo

    I see the percentages on the image, do we have a true over / under on taper / no taper??

    Even odds, or is there a true feeling of what's going to happen, if anything?


    [​IMG]
     
  8. where does it come from?...in whose opinion?
     
  9. Pity the fool that got his order executed at 1.3846....
     
  10. Woo, it's taper time :cool:
     
    #10     Dec 18, 2013