that's part of what prompted my top calling thread they run the spx within a few pooints of the 20 month moving avge on the spx, aftger ripping up a bunch of shorts late morning spx crossed that level countless times 1067, this month came with a few points today but couldnt hold it you'd think they'd want to peg that just over it
I tend to think this outcome is the most likely. 'Insurgent' financial blogs and ET are heavily bearish, probably also the odd prescient fund manager, but I think the dominant view of those who actually control the money flow (big funds and the mass of the public) is neutral to bullish. Most regular folks are back in stocks and many seem to expect new highs sooner or later. They are definitely not looking for another crash to new lows. I think it will take several quarters at a minimum to work off the remaining optimism and bullishness. More bear capitulations are needed, which will include a few rounds of downside fakeouts that get crowded and turn to short squeezes. I still like the mid to high 1100s as an ultimate multi-year top. When it gets there we can start chattering about having regained all the October '08 losses, all the voodoo moving averages will be broken, etc. etc. From my perspective we did see a ton of capitulation at the march lows: I'm super bearish on the economy and whatnot but I was buying stocks for long-term hold from 750 on down because it was just so damn cheap. Trying to pick the long-term top is going to be much more hazardous.
If it gets to be a crowded short, there ain't gonna be nothin' rangebound about it. The last time we got a crowded short was in early July!
I'm not really expecting the same outcome. But I guess I'm working from the stance that the July-Sept rally (given the low volume) was more about a lack of sellers than it was about bigtime buying. And I think it's likely there won't be a vaccuum on the offer the next time we pop. My sense is that the function of profit-taking/resistance at the highs (which I believe we'll see if/when we squeeze back up) will be to shift the cost-basis of the market. You hand off positions from those in from March and July, to those buying new highs. That puts the market in much more precarious hands. And this makes another big advance less likely without a lot more consolidation. Could be wrong. Perhaps the marketing engine will be effective in pulling in a whole new tranche of sidelined cash. But my trading range expectation is built on the idea that it will be as tough to break right back out as it may be to break significantly lower. Time will tell. But I'll be buying emotional selling and selling emotional buying for awhile.
Well I don't disagree with your trading range assumption... that seems to be the most likely thing as well from my perspective. Luckily I only trade intraday so all of these discussions are purely academic for me.
Volatility? Pardon me, but the S&P futs moved from 1060 to 1042 for the entire day range. And the bulk of that before the actual open. A little over a 1% move. That is muted volatility. There are no extremes here.
Right...move down came basically around PMI at 945 et...But, my feeling was that there was an increase in volatility. It doesn't show up in the daily range, but the dow moved over 500 pts in four swings, which is a shift in behavior given what we've been seeing.