Much like the tape of '07s extremes. Volatility and intra-day swings are very indicative of a top similar to what we saw. Thinking we're close to "that point"....again. Would I say the top is in....yes if not very near. The oct. effect along with two cycle cross dates (one coming late) would indicate this could be it. Resistance on the other hand was expected to come from the gap fill which we haven't seen yet....so it's not 100%
This has been going on since late August and it "feels" like distribution, but who knows in this market.
Yes, volatility is definitely increasing... I love it! We are nearing the top, but I don't know if I would call 1075 "the" final high just yet. The next few days and weeks will tell the tale...
We could still get there. This rally is not over yet... we could decline all the way to 1020 and still not break the trendline from March. Take into account a minor false break below 1000 to get everyone nice and short, and we could see another huge covering rally. Of course this is all a long ways away, but it could happen. There is more that needs to be played out here before we can call any kind of significant top just yet.
Wouldn't it be great to see the market acting this way without the "call the top" narrative being so popular? I hate that feeling. I just don't get the sense that capital is over-committed on the longside. I don't know if I've ever seen such a "wall-of-worry" as the one this market has scaled to get to these levels. Doesn't mean we have to go higher, mind you. Just not a market "pregnant" with a lot of complacent long positions. Seems to me to indicate that a correction is necessary, but will quickly become a crowded short. If that's the right read, then it suggests we may be basically rangebound for months.
the vix seeming to have bottomed at signifigant spx/indu technical resistence was part of my case for my 'top' calling' thread the breast is definately starting to rattle it's cage
I like this argument. The sideways period makes sense, because in my experience, many shorts need a looong time before they cry uncle. Considering how many relatively recent posts we've seen regarding insider buying at all time low, selling high, commercials net short, blah blah; there just hasn't been enough time to completely shake the shorts out of the tree, IMO. Correction seems reasonable; don't know about return to lows any time soon, though. Regarding the volatility argument, I agree that there was an telling increase in weird vol. prior to 07 (things like huge increase in overnight gap frequency). It would be nice to see someone actually back up a larger study with a simple scatterplot; but considering it's ET, I doubt we'll see any legwork from others.
People said the same thing when we were crashing down to 666. "There's no real capitulation yet." "Everyone is still trying to pick the bottom." The only thing I know for certain is that the Federal Reserve is pimping this market run up, and going against them takes one hell of a brave individual. Everything else is just noise.
Hear, hear... And what happened last time interest rates were lowered this much? That 03 gas pedal had a lot of steam behind it, that left a lot of puzzled shorts headless.