Talking about a "Sucker's Rally"

Considering that we hit an area where technicians were waiting to buy while others would cover, add in a further short squeeze ahead of the g20, also perhaps a rumor to be bought, so to speak, and you have ample reason for a bear rally. Just my opinion. Enough technicians create self fulfilling prophecy, as you know.

I personally believe fundamentals are important for long term trading, but believe the technicals are more important because they are evidence of the reaction (or lack of) to the fundamentals (and events, of course). If nothing else, would they not give a fundamentalist entry or exits ideas based on the evidence they offer?

 

The Dow is in a trading range between 8,000 and 9,500. Having bounced off the bottom of the range the Dow will, more likely than not, re-test the top. I call for Dow 9500 before the end of the month.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=^dji&sid=0&o_symb=^dji&freq=1&time=6

 

Market bounce of strong support. Problems are still not fixed, though. I think we'll see some upside from here, however temporary it may be

 

Yeah but you didn't make any money since you've been long since the top.
You've been saying it won't go lower for the last year+.
A complete idiot wouldn't be as wrong as you've been.
You are alone in your stupidity.
You are a sad individual.

 

from 11/13/1929 to 04/16/1930 the Dow had a five month rally of 52%, which was sandwiched firmly inside the greatest bear-market in over a 100 years.

When we examine the structure of a bull-market we may see a key characteristic of a bull-market consists of a greater extension of travelling upward compared to the size of the declines that occur on the way up.

Conversely, the structure of a bear market usually consists of greater extension of travelling downward compared to the length of the rises(step ups) that occur on the way down.

Now in November 2008, *IF* we are in the "middle or early parts"(rather then the end) of a major bear market, the upward legs have an expected limit to how much they ought to travel upward before triggering major selling pressure that then cascade market prices back down to significantly lower prices. Considering a drop of 6000 points from the peak dow price of 14,000ish, these "rough" downpressure area's off of the Dow 8000 lows would typically be somewhere in the grounds of dow 9000, 10000, or 11000 or somewhere in between.


If the Dow reaches under 7000 it will be a momentous failure of the smart money to support the juiciest most rewarding levels that show up on average once every 15 years. Drop below dow 7000 and they will unload their shares beginning a free fall that has economic devastation written all over it.

Juicy moments to try out a major short position: dow 10500 to dow 11000. And if the market doesn't reach that high: dow 6900.

 

We will go definately go higher for the next two days.

 

Is this because unlike other equities, financials have been "floating" down rather than falling on earnings? TARP uncertainty, Buffett intervention, shorts, buyouts, and ... The uncertainty kept the sector scary enough to slide down gently but most did not get the free fall needed until TARP and Buffett effect bagan wearing off last two weeks. Also, financials are extremely difficult to value in this new economy particularly without transparency.

 

Oh... I guess every thing is ok then. The market will go up from here the bottom is in....we can all go out and start buying stuff.

I hope they run this worthless market up to the moon because it will just make a better entry to get short again. lots more bad news around the corner. Be patient though because the heards can be stupid for quite a while before they figure it out. look how long it took wall street to figure out that they were standing on their dicks. I think they have a short memory.

Good trading all

 

President George W. Bush came out fighting for free markets with a strong and stirring defense of American capitalism on the eve of the G-20 World Economic Conference. Stocks soared 550 points Thursday as Bush’s luncheon speech was played live on all the major cable networks. It was as though Mr. Bush was trying to leave an economic-primer to his successor-elect Barack Obama. Markets cheered because it’s the best thing they’ve heard in many weeks.

Here’s one of several great passages from Bush: “At its most basic level, capitalism offers people the freedom to choose where they work and what they do … the dignity that comes with profiting from their talent and hard work. … The free-market system also provides the incentives that lead to prosperity — the incentive to work, to innovate, to save and invest wisely, and to create jobs for others.”

In other words, free-market capitalism is the best path to prosperity.
During a gloomy period of financial crisis, recession, big-government rescues, and ailing banks and industrial companies, Bush has provided a strong visionary dose of big-picture economic prosperity and optimism that can lead the U.S. and the rest of the world out of its economic doldrums.

Here’s another uplifting passage from Mr. Bush: “Free-market capitalism is far more than an economic theory. It is the engine of social mobility — the highway to the American Dream. And it is what transformed America from a rugged frontier to the greatest economic power in history — a nation that gave the world the steamboat and the airplane, the computer and the CAT scan, the Internet and the iPod.”

Capping all this off, Bush said, “The triumph of free-market capitalism has been proven across time, geography, culture, and faith. And it would be a terrible mistake to allow a few months of crisis to undermine 60 years of success.”

-By Larry Kudlow

 

LOL at Kudlow.

what a puppet!

i have to question the motives of those who put "Bush" and "visionary" in the same sentence. Bush is a myopic as they get.