Talking about a "Sucker's Rally"

based on what ?? earnings multiples ?!!
The S&P will be cheap at 600

 

Junk bonds yield.

 

market rallied "today" on Nothing, thanks.

 

that tells you that stocks are cheap ??....it tells you that corporate defaults are going to SOAR

 

here is the inverse:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=sh&sid=0&o_symb=sh&freq=1&time=6

 

If you look at the three most active NYSE stocks: C, GE, BAC, they're all making new lows vis a vis they're breaking out of trading ranges on the DOWNSIDE.

Rather than take wild guesses about bottoms, I'd rather look at what the market is actually doing.

 

Even given the forecast by Moody's of 10% default rate the current junk bonds yields are still pretty good. Do you expect the junk bonds yields to go higher? Then please tell us what's is out there that is not in their price already?

 

You must be "new" to the markets.
Either that, or you aren't much of a TRADER.
My guess, is that it is a combination of BOTH.

 

You sir, are wrong. News come out after major tops and major bottoms, not before. What was the news at the test of the bottom in Dec. of 1974?

The recession didn't end until 1975. Unemployment peaked at almost 9% in the summer of 1975.

 

Also worth noting is that the spooz surged 50% in less than a year, too according to that graph. Dow 12,500 in 2009 is not out of the question. At that point a retest of 7800 is nil.