Talk me out of my long gold position (sorry long post)

murray t turtle · Mar 18, 2020

Nobert said:
Hey tao,

when the last time i was in the trade, prior to opening it, i was 100% sure about the success of it. The equity went up 40% in few weeks, still, eventually i took 5% loss on that position
and 5 lessons for each %.

What do i mean by that, - didn't needed anyone, to ,,talk me out of that idea'', there was no second thoughts about it.

Thus, what's the point of staying in the trade, that you don't like - in the first place... ?

Close it, find something that you're comfortable with, or, even enjoy being in.
(if one can say so)
Or reduce the size dramatically.

Nothing attractive ? - not a problem, stay flat, until opportunities shows up.
More...

%%
I made money on DGP, but volume was much better when I was in that.
Sure, long term gold is in an uptrend, so its your business to invest/trade, or not.. Having said that , not hard to find better trends...………………………………………………………………………..
I still enjoy treading about gold + silver coins coins/fun/more fun

kmiklas · Mar 18, 2020

Paper gold price is controlled by JP Morgan

cdcaveman · Mar 18, 2020

Conspiracy theorist crap.... The gold market is bigger then jpm. People sell assets across the board to raise cash to sustain business... Hence metals getting hit....everything people say these days are straight out of a schizophrenics mind

Nobert · Mar 19, 2020

murray t turtle said:
....not hard to find better trends.... more fun...
More...

That's wheres the true gold lies within.

Sprout · Mar 19, 2020

taojaxx said:
So here’s the thing: sometime in early 2020, I figured that the low level of interest rates and the extended growth period that we had experienced meant that the Fed would have to resort to extraordinary means to fight any kind of slowdown.

Basically that the Fed would have to replay the 2008 scenario except that it would be from an already bloated balance sheet position.

This clearly favored gold. No reference to any virus at that time: holding horizon was several months at least.

There’s nothing particularly smart in that line of reasoning and I was pretty late to the party as quite a few hedgies have incepted long gold position for that exact reason way back mid-2019, at much better prices.

Plan was to use a trend following process, so basically buy more as prices went up (positive feedback kind of story).

Enter Coronavirus and Fed rate cuts. Scenario played out well as Gold prices move up. Position builds up as prices move up.

Everything looks fine and dandy until-you guess it-major dash for cash. Gold retreats big time (back to new year’s level, so not as bad as S&P). Position gets waaay underwater. I believe two reasons: Some hedgies get “executed” out of all positions (Bridgewater told us) and I’m suspecting some central banks might also need cash (Turkey at war, Iran Covid19).

Now the question is, what next?

I’m thinking to tough it out as, if what I believe is true (that’s a big if lol) said hedgies and Mid East central banks are forced sellers, so this does not invalidate the original thesis.

Last crash, gold got crushed in the dash for cash as well. The Fed’s job in such dire circumstances is to make cash less attractive, which I expect them to do again, benefiting gold.

Also, leverage is low so I have staying power. But I don’t want to persist in a dead end. Ready to admit I got it wrong if counter arguments are sound.

So, what y’all think? Should I stay or should I go?
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A sailboat generally goes through a storm or two before arriving at it’s port of call.

Stay the course, and deleverage. The storms are just getting started.

themickey · Mar 19, 2020

kmiklas said:
Paper gold price is controlled by JP Morgan
More...

Do you have any details?

kmiklas · Mar 19, 2020

themickey said:
Do you have any details?
More...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...precious-metals-price-manipulation/index.html

Sprout · Mar 19, 2020

As storms go, this is the perfect storm for hyperbitcoinization.

taojaxx · Mar 19, 2020

Sprout said:
A sailboat generally goes through a storm or two before arriving at it’s port of call.

Stay the course, and deleverage. The storms are just getting started.
More...

Points taken. If we look at 2008, market fell out of bed Sep. 15th, dragged gold down along for a full 2 months: Nov 15 is the time gold started taking off. This is 2020 though, not 2008, so who knows how this pans out? I'm reasonably prepared. Or so I think lol

Sprout · Mar 19, 2020

taojaxx said:
Points taken. If we look at 2008, market fell out of bed Sep. 15th, dragged gold down along for a full 2 months: Nov 15 is the time gold started taking off. This is 2020 though, not 2008, so who knows how this pans out? I'm reasonably prepared. Or so I think lol
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The difference this time is that there is a better alternative to hedge the current fiat experiment.

Now's a good time to understand the 'why' of bitcoin.

It's not for everyone, if one is curious with an open mind,
this is a good all around easy intro:
https://21lessons.com/

Gold will always have a use, but it is about to be surpassed as the hardest money ever invented.