I don't know about drawing lines on candle highs and lows. I don't do that. But as for price movement being founded in the past, yes. As for mathematicians having some special insight into how past behavior translates into possible future movement, one would be better off referring to psychology than mathematics.
Modeling psychology is purview of the higher timeframes and 'fuzzy logic'. That's where i trade, too. The 'tick', and on up to what level i'm not sure they reached yet, is purview of math quants. They are working their was higher, only matter of time. Bank now!
Doesn't matter. All movement is tick movement. How the trader bundles this information into a variety of bars or candles or whatever doesn't change that.
I agree macro price is based and influenced on ticks, and their aggregation. do we disagree on anything here? we're on same page? do we differ? ps:no psychology at tick level
Talent and genetics have virtually nothing to do with success in trading. Aside from certain sports where there are height and weight requirements, very little in this day and age is built on the wonder of someone’s genetics. To be successful at trading, you have to be inventive, you have to be a problem solver. You must be able to troubleshoot because at the end of the day it's your responsibility to stay on target with your goals. It's your responsibility to figure out HOW you can make more profitable trades and develop a plan around that. To all the newbie traders with grand expectations of where you want to go in this career, it's your dream so you need to cultivate it. You must develop your own skills and tools. I'm not talking about focusing on how many trades per day you make or watching your P&L. I'm talking about developing your character which speaks to your ability to follow through with a consistent daily routine of rigorous research, analysis, and execution. Do that and you'll start to string together days of efficient action on a very basic level in order to create a daily routine which creates an environment for success. But... if you're still working without a developed strength of character and the ability to follow through, then all the so-called talent, technical information and complex trading conversations will be worthless if you are still not able to do the fundamental daily work required to be successful. I often see new traders here on ET who are looking for a mentor yet those traders have not even demonstrated their ability to be mentored which means they aren't even ready for the next level of help or mentorship. How are you going to be a successful options trader without knowing basic options vocabulary and fundamentals? A good mentor doesn't just come to you because you're clueless and walking around aimlessly. There's work you must do on your own and you just have to bust your ass and get it done. You can't use excuses like "I've got ADHD so I can't study for more than a few seconds without getting distracted." ..... or..... "I'm not good at Math." ...... or..... "I can't have an automated trading system because I'm not a programmer and I can't afford to hire one." No. Instead, you do whatever it takes to learn the required math, you dig in and learn the fundamentals of programming, and you do all the other things required to the best of your ability. If you can't even do that, you're simply not ready for the next level of help or mentorship. If you've got big dreams and want to work with the best names in the industry, then you must master the skills of discipline, focus and trade management. Without those in place, even the best software, hardware, and research will be worthless because you don't possess the basic fundamentals required to continue on your journey of success. It’s like seeing a trader and you walk up to him and say “Hey man!” and he can barely say hello to you because he’s so focused and lost in the work. Time goes by and next thing you know he's making crazy profits. Intrigued and impressed, you ask him "Hey excuse me, what did you do to become so successful?” thinking that somehow it’s going to unearth for you the secret, but no such information comes about. If you want to mimic his journey and start yourself down the path to successful trading, you must say, "I want this so bad that I’m going to do everything that I can, all day long, to get closer and closer to making that dream a reality." Just keep saying that and keep working. Keep asking questions here on ET, and as you become more knowledgeable, contribute information back to this community to help others in their journey. Continually do this and the better picture that you’re looking to create for yourself will eventually be attained. You can create the reality that you want, but only if you endeavor to persevere. It’s the only way you can succeed in trading, or at anything else in life. Never forget: The best way to predict the future is to create it.
Reading rest of your post but this 1st paragraph i can't get past. Risk taking has genetic basis, that is much like height in basketball. no doubt 'nuture' is an influence on that base. tom dwan can draws down a million dollars on a single hand. laughs it off, and plays next hand. could you do that. i couldn't.
Be careful to not confuse limiting beliefs with genetics. Risk tolerance may mean one is not comfortable with as large a size as another trader but it doesn't mean one can't be profitable with a relatively smaller size. Familiarity with what one is doing reduces fear. Gringo
Saying that something has a genetic basis is a statement you can technically say about any human behavior. Applying that type of thinking will just set someone up for failure and give them an easy out when things get difficult. Risk taking is nothing more than exercising your brain to accommodate a higher level of uncertainty. Just like how one learns to accommodate more weight after years of strength training, he can learn to take on more risk as he exposes himself to more and more situations that require it.