Like I said, the truth is nobody knows for sure exactly what he is doing. And from what I understand, Empirica is mostly his money so I doubt he would register with MAR or any other hedge fund database. I knew a guy in NY that was friendly with Taleb and he said the guy is loaded beyond his means. So either A, he is doing OK for himself, B, he inherited a lot of money, or C, he made a shitload of money in the institutional world and he hasn't gotten around to burning through all of it yet. The bottom line is, we don't know and it's useless to speculate.
Well Mav thinks he has a mutual friend too. One of you are full of shit is my guess. I'd venture to bet Dildo knows him about as well as I know Marlon Brando...
How is that Cherry Hill boy? We both can't have a mutual friend that knows him. The guy I knew in NY is Saul Fiedler. I'm sure there are many on on this board who know who this guy is. Anyway, I knew Saul and his dad and they both knew Nassim. They were not friends, just hung around in similar circles on the upper west side. Anyway, all they told me is the guy is pretty well off. They never said it was from trading, from money he made earlier on or from rich chics he's banging. They just said the guy was pretty well to do. He has a nice place on the upper west side and a pretty big home out in Connecticut. I've also heard he is a lavish spender and has an incredible Art collection that is worth a fortune. Taleb maybe be the worst trader in the world, he's not, but even if he was, that doesn't mean he is not loaded.
Omar, figures. Probably Lebanese. Saul is Jewish but hangs around a lot of rich Lebanese of which Nassim is in NY. Who knows, maybe all three of them know each other. LOL. Anyway, who cares how rich the guy is. Saul is fucking loaded. One of the best traders I have ever met. No, make that the best trader I have ever met.
I agree; he won't pay my nut, so it's worthless to question his net worth. I wonder how NT fared on the NYC floor? My point was simply that the guy doesn't have a public record of performance. There is a reason for that. If I were worth 300mm perhaps I would buy gamma with the interest, wtf knows. Curious where this 300mm figure came from...? OK, that (curiousity) passed...
I have read virtually everything Taleb has written, even his academic publications. While he has mentioned that his fund can never blow up but can only bleed to death, I think he is being a little self deprecating. I may be wrong, but I seem to recall that he does in fact keep most of the funds money in short term treasury bills and then uses the interest to buy the options. In which case, it is pretty hard to bleed to death. With 300 million, he could be spinning of 3-6 million a year to buy options with. Though Mavs strategy of the ultimate option trade is certainly viable, it does leave some of the position open to a black swan while the front month is expiring. The question was brought up as to why buy calls: Talebs strategy is spread over all markets, not just the US stock exchange. Calls on bonds, various currency pairs and commodities all fit into his black swan theory. I've sometimes thought if I could get to 1 or 2 million, I would like to do the same thing for myself on a smaller scale. As for Taleb not publishing his results and how he compares to other hedge funds: I don't think it matters as I do not believe hedge funds are necessarily smart money. In fact, at this point in time I would be willing to say that taken on a whole, they represent dumb money. Taleb does not need to play that game. Best, Mike
it would seem to me that this strategy of options for black swans would work at any scale, providing you are very very patient. Even a $5000 account could buy $1000 of very OTM puts and hold tight, then do it again and again. If a black swan happens, those puts will be worth $20,000 or more.
I bet he did not (does not) do the Indian markets and is kicking himself in the head for not doing it. nitro