only took a couple of years but i finally figured out that waiting for the turn around is suicidal... i would rather miss a trade...then watch and learn...than take a trade and watch my equity shrink... did a little bit of this today but i am getting better about it...honest
I totally agree...if we commiserate about what "could have been" ...then we not looking at "what can be now"..... I believe strongly in consistency, that is a primary key...you can always "dial up" share size to increase profits...but you need to be consistent in your trading. All the best, Don
Everyday we leave billions and billions of dollars on the table. Instead focus on a target you can justify and be happy with. Then all you have to worry about is did I hit my target or not.
Don you make good points here. Also whomever said "that which gets you into a trade also gets you out" is dead on. I recently have used this approach (probably for the past year) and my gains have increased exponentially. When i see a setup for the next type of trading then i exit my current position and either decide to take the next trade or wait it out. When you really can read the flow of the market it is obvious when you should be out of the trade. Good thread!
That means the traders don't care about the progress of P/L even if encountering a streak of losses until too late. How dangerous!
I look at the issue you raise as a putting issue (as in golf). And I also look at it as a major strategy that neutrally biased traders use. Also, several people made good points that allow for improvement. If I miss while putting I make a note of the range error. Meaning it could have been long or short the amount that I missed by. So my adjustment for distance is to deal with a larger distance (2x's the miss) than the miss distance. The halibuton example was fun: Bought 31.22 sold 31.28 Sold short at 31.58 about 30 minutes later bought back at 31.50 Closed at 31.47....hmmm? Oh well, LOL. The putting on Haliburton left at least 30 cents and 30 minutes on the table during the putt. 3 cents and some time was left on the table for the second putt. The switch in strategies that is helpful is to not do entries and exits but to do something else. That is, to have your capital be making money all of the time. I call it hold and reverse. Some other comments in this thread bear this out; they were: 1. "That which puts you in a trade, should be that which gets you out of a trade." 2. "hesitation is my biggest problem." 3. "I think we need to have some (mechanical - probably) rules to define a reference for each trade in order to know how much left on table due to whatever reasons we didn't completely follow the pre-defined rules." 4. "I prefer getting out too early......rather leave money on the table then have a winner turn against me." 5. "Now I know I need to upgrade my exit rules. " 6. "Something we try to teach our new people is to let the market tell you (yell at you) when to get out....if things are going against you, perhaps the best trade of your day is taking a small loss." 7. "re-entry decisions would allow too many discretionary actions - a main source of leaving money on the table, as I guess." 8. "Just take what's there. Then come back when there is more." 9. "only took a couple of years but i finally figured out that waiting for the turn around is suicidal... i would rather miss a trade...then watch and learn..." 10. "if we commiserate about what "could have been" ...then we not looking at "what can be now"..... 11. " "that which gets you into a trade also gets you out" is dead on. I recently have used this approach (probably for the past year) and my gains have increased exponentially. When i see a setup for the next type of trading then i exit my current position and either decide to take the next trade or wait it out." So for me my hold and reverse strategy came about because I just looked at price change as the way to make money and the contiue to be on the right side of that price chhange at all times. This is not going to be possible for anyone who is doing entries and exits. I did find out what the transition was for these kinds of people, though. I suggested a few times to different people who were exiting early that they just hold on a trade and look for the next entry. By continuing to look for the next entry (and you have to be neutrally biased to do this (see Haliburton above) you get to a place where you just exit to make that next great entry. Technically, you use a reversal trade to do this. I am attatching two screens that show my eye movement for the sequence of views (From coarse to medium to fine). I "see" the markets and as a consequence I get to repeatedly make the four steps (monitor, analysis, decision making, and taking timely action) You will see on the next post how I get to the place where action is taken. You can see where prior reversal would have taken place. On the SCT journal there are a couple of debriefed illustrations of these places for reversal and you also see the in between places where hold is going on. One of the majot clues for doing good trading is to see the markets. Obviously from the illustrations you see that no one platform will be workable. and the platfroms that are used have several coded modifications to get them up to par. the "bouncing ball that shows PRV is one of them. This gives you coarse and medium "gaussians so you know when details of market "changes" are coming up regarding reversing sides of the market. The Medium is YM which leads the ES which is the traded market. This is below as the right screen of two screens. When you move your eyes (following the Arrows )you see all of the fine media on the left screen just above the trading buttons that are preset for either reversing or other actions. first you come to "see" what smart money is doing in the STR/SQU coded display. YM leads the INDU so the "differences in the offset (we get that from indexarb. com before open each moring and make up to four adjustments during the day). Stretch is a leading indicator of the market turning to go long. The back shows it just is going long from being short (squeezed) Scanning this then takes you up to DOM where you see a long bias. and you see that there is a "wall" blocking the market from going short. Then you go to the tick charts (the upper YM leads the ES as you see. The final focus is "carving the turn" on the tick chart of ES with due regard for the tick volume (see black arrows). this is putting to hole out using reversals which take max profits and at the same time put you in the next trade on the "right" side of the market. You can see alot of projested channels on three levels of channel each finer level within the shell of the more heavily weighted channel lines. Two bars are used to proeject any channel or its traverses. there is a repeated sequence of many items. Yuo can read the sequence because it is written in over and over each day. there is a potential of a market. For ES it is 3 times the H-L of the day. at this profit taking level you are taking most of what is offrred off the table.