Thank you for the suggestion Biv. Will look into it. Not sure how i would get much feedback from traders with a blog there, but it would allow me to write more freely. Sooooo. rough end to this week. THOUGHTS FROM THE CELLAR: -JPM broke out and in the process took me to the woodshed. well done. monthly/weekly resistance is 47 or 49-50. nice consolidation breakout. should have known something was up when every dip was bought back up. i keep wanting to call this current move in JPM/SPY/everything "manipulation" but truthfully i nearly always see what is possible (high/low etc) from the charts, and i dont really want to blame anyone/thing other than myself right now. i must adapt and read this action better. -SPY 131 puts lost about half their value; after being a 60% profit from yesterday's open (THURS). I dont like to play the "wouldda" etc game, but I just want to reread this later and remind myself to take profits sooner (or actually be around a computer, since my options trades do not allow for conditional orders - ie bracketed target & stop). This has happened multiple times with options, and begins to get frustrating. I realize I am trying to pick tops. I am getting greedy with targets. I know where s1 (support) is, and continue to place profit targets at larger areas. I believe this comes from my early trading when i would book profits too soon and miss large moves. In this environment maybe that is not the right way. could learn to scale out as well. Fortunately this is a much smaller position than JPM, and have not added on to it once. Opex looms next friday and it wouldnt surprise me to see a run up into wednesday.
quiet since opex. got crushed on a couple positions last week, but this week is making up for some of that at least. -had a nice SPY 131 put trade today from 2.07 to 2.62. waiting to see what happens next with the indexes. -sold JPM 46 puts yesterday that i bought last week .50 --> 1.12 bought some more puts today. picked up JPM 46 and APC 75. dont believe the selling is over. in fact, im leaning toward thinking intermediate trend change.
took JPM 46 puts off : 1.19 --> 1.56. not sure what happens after today. looking for more short opps though. holding APC 75s right now. not sure where oil and earnings are going to take this at the moment. but thinking 72 is a possibility by week end. (79.6 right now)
this was stopped out end of day at 81.21 which it closed at! (HOD) bought JPM 46 puts today .88 and sold 1.15 interesting first day of the month. nice to see red for once.
been in and out of these all over the past two weeks, and actually playing them pretty well. even been the low/high on a few days. oil finally falling off and the earthquake/tsunami certainly helped these positions. with nice overnight profits that were usually booked around my technical support levels. also been playing JPM 45 and 46 puts and have had a nice few days. not sure what rest of week has in store. thinking 1300 might be magnet for SP, but also can see more downside for sure. 1190 will come. looking to continue shorting both JPM and APC until their lower gaps are filled. I've been getting better at not being so greedy (ie waiting/holding these option positions until those said gaps fill, just because i wanted to be right BIG) and taking profits at first and second support levels on shorts. It's a strategy I've been using in my IRA (perhaps because the money is a little more sacred -even though all money is money), and I'm starting to realize i should ring the register more and be happy with singles, doubles, etc. Anyway, something is working at the moment, and I'm looking to continue to build on this.