Taking Apple (AAPL) short

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by chaosclarity, Oct 9, 2011.

  1. The last few days I was thinking that Apple would be a fantastic buy then when I saw Tim Cook get on stage I had second thoughts. Tim Cook is no Steve Jobs and the market confirmed my opinion as Apple went down 2%.

    I know and fully understand the respect of Apple and Steve Jobs, however, as an investor/trader I have to do whats right in regards to my accounts. In this case, taking the common stock of the company short is the right thing to do. Only a relatively small number of contrarian investors will understand my logic. While the rest of the investors are trapped inside "The Matrix", by their own choice, and have no hope of escape, blinded by their own delusions.
  2. 1 bad product release doesnt mean anything. And 4S still made record, att said they sold something crazy like 200k units in the first few days.

    Wait and see if there is a trend of mediocrity. Besides apple is so far ahead of the game right now in both tech and brand, they could just sit still for the next 3 years and release only hardware upgrades without changing anything else and still do ok.

    Maybe not go long, but start a long term short is a bit too dramatic, dont you think?

    edit: looked it up, it's 200k ordered from att alone in first 12 hours. new record.
  3. phones are commodities. as were typewriters, calculatrs and the pc

  4. lwlee


    Waaayyyy too early to dump Apple.

    I also have apprehension about Apple future innovation without Steve Jobs' vision. I believe that's one of the reason why it's P/E multiple is so low. But I don't think we are at the peak yet. Market will rally, Apple will go up. I figure we'll need at least another year to determine if there are cracks.

    Right now, the train is cruising along and in momentum. It takes a while to derail that kind of trajectory.
  5. Like Wang Labs or Myspace? At the height of those no one thought they would go away. Thats it for Apple IMHO.
  6. lwlee


    Myspace? They were lucky to get a little further than Groupon.

    Wang had a series of missteps like all companies who eventually fail but it wasn't a quick implosion.
    Wang Lab Decline and Fall

    Apple right now is at the height of its dominance. Except for Jobs' death, they executing spot-on at the moment.

    It's your money, you wanna short, go for it. I'm currently long Apple but only looking to play earnings in a couple of weeks.

  7. "1 bad product release doesnt mean anything."

    Tim Cook does not inspire confidence and he is no Steve Jobs nor a person who could possibly emulate Jobs in anyway. In fact, I kind of wonder why Steve picked Tim. In this video, Tim doesnt seem too convinced that he actually "loves Apple". His strength is obviously not public speaking and he gets a weak applause from what is probably a hand-picked audience. No energy and a totally dry sense of humor. He should have come out on that stage full of energy. Tim couldnt sell a used car let alone an Iphone. Is this the future leadership of Apple? Some de-energized oldish character who can't even sell a used car to an interested buyer?

    <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/uy7d0Wn9oN8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

    "Maybe not go long, but start a long term short is a bit too dramatic, dont you think?"

    Nope. When Apple drops and dumps, it drops and dumps. Its all there. Recession around the corner. this new character Tim Cook leading the way who I wouldnt trust to lead the local Boy Scout troop...

    "Apple right now is at the height of its dominance."

    You are partially right. Samsung and other Android makers have had phones out there which clearly beat Iphone 4 for several months now in ways of dataspeed, picture quality and not to mention there are so many more apps out there for the Androids. The Android makers had dual core phones out there back in July. So now Apple is simply catching up with this latest release.

    Steve Jobs was more then just vision for Apple. He was the management and he managed things in a certain way. In Tim Cooks first appearance, I got the impression that he was a much different breed then Jobs. Quite honestly, I got the feeling that he didnt really care.

    Right now, Apple dominates just like Walmart, Cisco and Dell dominated their respective fields in the year 2000. However, things can change. The stock price is currently at this high on the cusp of a recession and as we all know too well the stocks of today...are certainly not going to be the ones of tommorrow...
  8. No reason to short AAPL, it's a strong company making good money and with a good line of products.

    However, without Jobs I'm no longer interested in the company.

    I had been an AAPL shareholder for many years and my exit plan was to exit when he retired or passed away.

    The day Jobs announced he would cease being CEO I exited but the thought of shorting it never crossed my mind.

  9. lindq


    There are cases to be made for both long and short AAPL.

    But the best case to be made is: "If in doubt, stay out."
  10. GordonTheGekko

    GordonTheGekko Guest

    There are plenty of better things to do than short Apple. My current investment activities involve day trading indexes via various leveraged and non leveraged ETFs/ETNs, and using backtested automation. I hardly touch futures anymore! Plenty busy (and profitable!) with this setup.

    I feel as though the 4S is a joke, and even though this is speculation, that Apple was supposed to release an iPhone 5.

    If they miss earnings, it will be a short, because everyone will be throughly disappointed given the huge expectations from the glamor and all. On top of Steve Jobs passing...
    #10     Oct 9, 2011