As you can see the automated strategies have failed to perform. I was doing well with AUTOTRADE1 (even well before the start of the thread), and had factored in a monthly performance of say 8%, until about mid-July. The market kind of changed, and I was incurring deep drawdown; so first I reduced size and then stopped completely. In retrospect it was the right thing to do, since the meltdown in August and now in November could have hit me pretty hard (it is a long only strategy). I toughened the conditions for Autotrade2 because it was getting sub-optimal trades: since then it hasnt gotten any trade! Autotrade 3 and 4,were experimental ideas, and apparently they failed ab initio.
You are right. I am disappointed by my performance in stocks, especially the long stock strategies (of course I had that hit of 47K on the long position in ICFI - week 12). It is quite a reversal from last year (2006), where I lost 118K in options, and needed my stock trades (242K) to give me a +124K return for the year. I guess the message would be not to write off anything but apply myself to right what I am doing wrong. Glad I believed there are great potentials in options if done right.
Well some are trend folks, and long-biased, and volatility is a killer. Had to shut down my automated long strategies.
Weekly Update for week 39 ended 11/23/2007 Slightly negative week. Hope something better turns up next week. Absolutely outraged by that DISH manipulation. On Monday morning (935am) shorted DISH after the initial barron's call about the possibility of an acquisition (at $44.10). Then came the rumour by TheStreet.com (about 11.30am) claiming they have "reliable source", talking of certainty of acquisition within a week: "The final price for the satellite-TV operator is still in negotiation, and it's likely to be somewhere between $64 to $68 a share, the source said" The stock immediately shot up above $50, and I had to cover at 49.20, for a loss of 25K. What a sad day on wall street when the pros can only make money by fabricating, disseminating, and trading on unfounded rumours. The stock eventually dropped to 44 after hours when WSJ countered the theStreet's rumour. Thankfully, FRE came along Tuesday morning, and I recouped my losses shorting it. However a bad decision to buy PDCO on Wednesday after their earnings shortfall (believing it was overdone) left me with a loss of 19K. Next week, please come along. Code: Balance B/F: 203,725 Loss for the week -1,889 ------------------------------------------------ Balance C/F: 201,836 Number of Trades 21 Number of Profitable Trades 13 Since Inception of Thread 2/25/2007 - 11/23/2007 Balance B/F: 76,636 Net Gain (Less Margin Interest) 196,200 Cash Withdrawal -71,000 ------------------------------------------------ Balance C/F: 201,836 (Adjusted balance before withdrawals is 272836, up 256% ) Number of Trades 1051 Number of Profitable Trades 596 Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 404,034 Status: Behind Target (Based on adjusted balance before withdrawals) Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAINS/LOSS TYPE FRE 2007-11-20-08-19-11 2007-11-20-14-46-09 9000 245321 277497 32121 SHORT PDCO 2007-11-21-12-28-26 2007-11-21-15-14-52 10000 287000 292000 4976 LONG --------------------------------------------------------------- PDCO 2007-11-21-09-33-25 2007-11-21-12-21-55 10000 306105 287002 -19147 LONG DISH 2007-11-19-09-35-38 2007-11-19-11-55-24 6000 289792 264908 -24948 SHORT (Before Interest and Other charges) TRANSACTIONS ANALYSIS FROM 2007-02-25 TO 2007-11-24 Current Week | Since Inception of Thread | Method Gains/Loss No Of Profitable | Gains/Loss No Of Profitable Trades Trades | Trades Trades Automated AutoTrade1 0 0 0 | 5652 208 116 AutoTrade2 0 0 0 | 3372 12 8 AutoTrade3 0 0 0 | -4523 3 0 AutoTrade4 0 0 0 | -15301 3 0 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Total Automated 0 0 0 | -10800 226 124 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Discretionary Long -3856 9 7 | -67516 280 163 Short 3665 7 3 | 77594 289 167 Options(long) -1665 5 3 | 197664 256 142 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Total Discretionary -1856 21 13 | 207741 825 472 =========== ======== ============ | =========== ====== ============ Net Totals -1856 21 13 | 196941 1051 596 =========== ======== ============ | =========== ====== ============
Didn't know someone was watching me. SHLD has cratered massively this year, with some good book value, so not looking for an implosion. Shorted a "little" in pre-market at 102.80, covering now at just below 102 for a small gain. Missed opportunity to cover below 100 this morning.
Weekly Update for week 40 ended 11/30/2007 Yet another horrible week, down 26K. My emotion had the worst part of me, hesitating to enter positions when signaled, rushing in when the move was already substantially underway, and similarly bad judgement on exits. Things have got to improve. Lost 29K in options. Incidentally this area has been my biggest support this year. Still working on narrowing my concentration to a few key strategies, with a lot of objective parameters. Can't afford to be emotional in this area: the spreads alone can chop one to shreds. Code: Balance B/F: 201,836 Loss for the week -26,325 ------------------------------------------------ Balance C/F: 175,511 Number of Trades 23 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 2/25/2007 - 11/30/2007 Balance B/F: 76,636 Net Gain (Less Margin Interest) 169,875 Cash Withdrawal -71,000 ------------------------------------------------ Balance C/F: 175,511 (Adjusted balance before withdrawals is 246511, up 222% ) Number of Trades 1074 Number of Profitable Trades 607 Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 421,629 Status: Behind Target (Based on adjusted balance before withdrawals) Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAINS/LOSS TYPE GOOLN 2007-11-27-10-07-41 2007-11-27-10-33-01 3000 70360 86300 15864 GOOG DEC 670 CALL OVTI 2007-11-30-08-48-03 2007-11-30-14-54-01 5000 94200 101809 7587 SHORT ----------------------------------------------------------------------- BPJXJ 2007-11-28-09-38-39 2007-11-28-15-17-04 2500 68750 53880 -14948 BIDU DEC 350 PUT BDULE 2007-11-26-12-34-13 2007-11-26-15-09-56 3500 113500 98000 -15584 BIDU DEC 330 CALL (Before Interest and Other charges) TRANSACTIONS ANALYSIS FROM 2007-02-25 TO 2007-11-30 Current Week | Since Inception of Thread | Method Gains/Loss No Of Profitable | Gains/Loss No Of Profitable Trades Trades | Trades Trades Automated AutoTrade1 0 0 0 | 5652 208 116 AutoTrade2 0 0 0 | 3372 12 8 AutoTrade3 0 0 0 | -4523 3 0 AutoTrade4 0 0 0 | -15301 3 0 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Total Automated 0 0 0 | -10800 226 124 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Discretionary Long -6723 3 1 | -74239 283 164 Short 9797 12 8 | 87391 301 175 Options(long) -29376 8 2 | 168287 264 144 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Total Discretionary -26302 23 11 | 181439 848 483 =========== ======== ============ | =========== ====== ============ Net Totals -26302 23 11 | 170639 1074 607 =========== ======== ============ | =========== ====== ============
I am struggling to understand just what happened this week. This was my worst trading week of 2007 (-4,877.00) and I was red all 5 days. That has not happened to me in over 2 years. Every trade I entered just "felt" risky. While I followed my "system" I was either late... or too early on every trade it seems. Monday and Tuesday were very strange indeed and yesterday was just a nervous, chop day. I am taking all next week off and will just watch the action and study my model. The previous 3 weeks were very good for me but something changed this week. I'm not sure if it was the market... or if was just me. NEKE... You are an inspiration. Keep your head up, keep trading, and keep on learning. I intend to do the same. Regards, Joe