This kind of weeks is to be expected. Going from 75k to 500k in less than a year without large drawdowns is impossible. You need extreme luck or an extreme edge to avoid large drawdowns (or the possibility of ruin) when targeting for +600%. If there is something to worry and argue about it is whether neke has or hasnât the skills to do it. Not the way he is doing it. I wouldnât take that kind of risk myself but if I had to produce 600% returns then thatâs the only way.
That Neke was down this week hard to understand... Neke, you must not be following the Dow or S & P. I made over 10% on my portfolio this week.. How?? no options, just stocks.. Solar group had been beaten to a pulp.. JASO, TSL, FSLR.. and DRYS (Dry Bulk shipper) and TNH (Agricultural).. bought all these long on the reversal of that Bear trap on Wednesday.. The point I am making is even with a lack of Money management, being acutely aware of and following market direction will insulate you from your troubles last week. If not you can get chopped to death. Currently looking to shift to short on really weak stocks at Dow 13,500 and full short should Dow sniff 13,700.. Also leave options once and for all.. YOU said in the past you were quitting options.. but you must feel without their volatility your goal is not possible.. Clearly you have trouble sticking to rules. We all have our gremlins but it is imperative to protect yourself from you somehow. I really wish to see your drawdowns lessened..
Yes I regret being left out of the rebound. I saw the market collapse on Tuesday, and my target entry point was reached, but thought there would be a follow-on sell-off on Wed morning at which point I should load up. Unfortunately that did not come, and I just missed it. All the same, I bought SPWR and CMI in my wife's account (much smaller balance), and closed them on Friday after the run-up. For all you know they might continue rallying next week. I just felt it was too fast too soon. Options would be a good way to catch short-term rebounds like that. However, the bid/ask spread on SPWR on Tuesday was not encouraging, I was reluctant to enter, and waited for the expected follow-on sell-off which never came.
Neke, Yes, at close tuesday one would have been short.. (Dow 13150 had been violated on a closing basis - but MACD on most stocks and the markets disagreed)) I was about 1/2 my account, but covered asap Wendesday and reversed as MACD was right in the end... There does seem a to be a crusade to hold markets up NO MATTER WHAT.. elections next year.. plain manipulation.. whatever.. Shorts cannot hold for long.. time will come though.. Good luck..
Neke................just wondering what your wife thinks of your trading? Is she behind you? How does your employer feel about you trading during office hours? Some companies don't allow it, just wondering, not trying to be critical at all.....I'm enjoying this thread very much. Do you remember stating that your over-leveraged trades are the big losers and the under-leveraged trades are your big winners? Maybe the trading gods want you to trade more on the underleveraged side. Just food for thought. Also, it sounds as though you are becoming extremely confused when the markets don't do what you expect them to and you're in a trade up to your eyeballs. To me, that means you need to step back, take some time off and become refreshed and relaxed. Maybe spend some time with your baby daughter. Remember when we try to predict what's going to happen, or what WE think will happen, the markets will go against you just to prove that they are right. Overall, I think you can/will become a successful trader. You just need to work on a few things. Relax. Don't rush. Remember your own stats.......your big losers are the over-leveraged trades......your winners are the underleveraged trades.
You've recovered from worse, I have every confidence you'll do the same. Keep moving forward, persevere in the face of adversity, and you'll soon put some great numbers on the board once again. Good Luck....thanks for sharing the good, the bad, and the ugly!
Neke: Wanted to get your opinion on trading options exp week's. This last few months hasn't seemed to exhibit the reduction of volatility in the indexes and many stocks in the last 5 trading days. This makes for what I'd perceive as high leverage (lower risk per delta) trading opportunities. In particular, even the ES end of month options were awesome last week. Huge leverage with a 'built in' minimal stop loss buying those puts and calls. This looks to be very compatible w/ your trading style.
I won't say I trade options expiration. It is true that premiums reduce significantly on expiration week, but without the right set-up I would still shy away. It is easy to lose a lot trading them.
Yea, she is well behind me now. It used to be rocky before I bottomed in the market (Oct/Nov 2004), when I kept sending money to my account without taking anything out. I kept telling her it is a long-term investment. But now it is the other way; she certainly looks forward to the extra I bring out of the market. Thanks, I am spending quality time with my daughter, in spite of everything going on. I shall still take 3 months of parental leave from my office starting in October. I am looking forward to that.