Thanks for the compliment. I shall decide that at the end of the year. But it will have to be a new thread with a new starting balance and a new target. I shall determine what that target should be based on my performance and what I think I have gained(or lost!) in terms of edge.
Neke, Watch out for these stocks like RIMM that are heavily short. The hedge funds that are short are getting squeezed so illogical price moves to the upside are occuring. On valuation, RIMM is sickly overvalued.
After the last weekly update we can see that there is a net loss of -20654 on all stock trades (everyline on the analysis table other than the options line). However looking at my list of 530 stock trades since the start of the thread (attached Excel sheet), I find my average percentage move per stock trade is +0.49%. I have simulated possible performance at different leverage levels, assuming the trades were sequential (one position at a time). At all leverage levels I find I should be vastly profitable. I am trying to find out why inconsistent leverage would have cost me so much. At a leverage of 50% I should have return 237%, at 100% leverage should return 868%, at leverage of 200% I should return a whopping... Of course I know the trades were not all sequential, there were overlapping trades, so it might be a bit different, but even then the disconnect between average return and even number of profitable trades vs. actual gains is so dramatic. I seem to make good percentage gains when I am underleveraged, and big percentage losses when I am overleveraged. This has got to stop. I will look at this further for more insight on the measures to put in place. Feel free to comment if you observe anything from this spreadsheet. The actual tickers are blanked out.
The mechanical system that I use has strong correlation to certain days of the week over many years of testing. Just for kicks I crunched your data. Looks pretty even. Wednesdays seem to be a little less than favorable for your system though, over this short less-than-one-year data. Take it or leave it. Attached spreadsheet.
You definitely seem to have the skills to make it. Good luck for the last few months! Which software do you use for trading?
Thanks for that nice-looking spreadsheet. I wasn't aware there could be a day-of-the week bias. Glad to know there is none. Lately though, Mondays have been dreadful for me. I am still working full-time as an Information Technology specialist. I do this part-time. Will probably go full gear one day. No software as such. My analysis is done by programs I developed. The rest is discretion based on my experience of the markets.
Neke, maybe your realization that you tend to lose more frequently when you put up more cash could mean that you are perceiving that a particular stock is highly volatile...and then leveraging up to hit a home run. I guess the first question that I should ask would be: is your position sizing discretionary, or is that part of your program too? Maybe you should either try using a similar position size on every trade (as your spreadsheet suggests), or you could even correlate the position size to something like front-month average implied volatility, derived from the stock's options, if available. For example, what would happen if you tried using a smaller position size for high IV trades, and vice versa?...which would probably be the opposite to what you've been doing. Just a thought...
Terrible capital protection . A $53,000 loss in one week is ridiculous and should never be allowed to happen with it being such a ;large % of your capital. You are playing roulette. A few spins of the wheel you are up and a few spins of the wheel you are down. You are all over the place. Protect your capital better and cut your losses. You obviously have no idea when to exit a trade that has gone bad. You are placing to much of you $$$ on too few trades also. Quick way to lose all you money just like playing roulette. The way you are trading will not be productive over time. You will continue to be up and down. What ever you make you will be giving back over time. Foolish way to be trading. Good Luck I hope you make your 500K.....If you do you might want to quit trading because you will lose it all back.
You are probably up 1% on the year while Neke is up well over 200%. I suggest you take notice and stop criticizing. He is managing his risk well and in no way playing roulette with his money.