Taking 76K to 500K by Year End

Well said. I'd rather see ET be a positive environment where we can learn and provide encouragement to each other. I get enough negativity every day seeing markets go against me.

Keep on posting neke. Neke's model is designed for large drawdowns. And he gets that occasionally. Regardless if it works for your stomach (jimmyjam), its an interesting higher risk method of trading. Maybe you'll be right in the end... or maybe you'll be very wrong -- who knows JimmyJammy, but whats the point of repeating it endlessly and constantly poking at possible weakness? You made your point once. First time they were constructive ; each successive time they are -eroding-.

 

I think it's easy to have strong reactions to neke's weekly volatility...as I am certainly in that camp. However, I think it's more important to look at his equity curve and overall performance...that equity chart now has 25 datapoints, and while there are some obviously wild swings, the trend is still in the UP direction. I think that if all his results were truly luck, good or bad, neke would have probably blown up by now. Just by the amount of trades he's done, over a statistically significant time period, tells me he PROBABLY is trading with some sort of edge.

My questions and criticisms to neke:

I noticed up until recently that you didn't use options and held them in disdain. Now it seems to be much of what you do (or at least what you post about). What have you changed in your strategy related to options, so that you now feel you have an edge?...even taking into account mile-wide bid/asks, etc?

Also, given the big swings in your equity, are you going to do anything differently if and when you hit 500k? If your journal was titled "Taking 76K to 250K by Year End" would you consider your goal met a few weeks ago, only to then lose a large chunk and dip back under that amount?

 

JJ,

I have defended you in the past when I felt you were being harassed for not following the "method of the majority". But you are out of line on this one.

If this is not your style of trading, great, don't do it. If he has the financial ability to withstand a complete drawdown but has a equal or greater chance to take it to 1/2 mil, I don't see the issue. so even if his odds are 50/50, that is a pretty good risk/reward.

The problem with ET is that everyone wants to save everyone else from themselves. He is presenting a idea/strategy. Anyone with 1/2 a brain can determine if the risk is more than they can bear.

If you are afraid that some "newbie" trader may read this thread and begin trading this method then I contend they are going to lose all their money anyway by the fact that they have no method / system and will mindlessly assume everyone else is smarter than they are.

 

Neke,

Good job this week. The vola has been a blessing to me as well, good moves all around.

JimmyJam,

How long have you been on this site? Have you ever posted an account statement, or, even a day's worth of execution? Before I start to criticize you for your opinions, why don't you provide some sort of real world example of proper risk management, either through your trading or otherwise.

I will say two things, one, my option trading is very similar to neke's in terms of risk-to-reward, i.e. BY NATURE directional option trading is high risk-to-reward. Two, my max options only trading drawdown is about 20% - its because options offer tremendous leverage!!! Think about that Jam... one is able to control millions using a few $k.

Givent that, do you even trade options directionally, Jimmy?

I personally do not think neke is taking on substantial risk... I think it's clear his P/L ratios work. A 33% DD for 70%++ return isn't too bad IMO.

Mike

 

Hey Mikey,

By you same logic, the poeple who can criticize movies are those who have made them.

Uh, no.

I've posted plenty of stuff, you didn't read it, your loss.

If this is how Neke wants to play his game and post his results, fine.

If I have a problem with the volatility of the account, I'll make the statement to that effect.

Jimmy Jam

 

The only way he was going to take $76k to $500k was to swing for fences. He wasn't going to get there buying and holding Disney.

 

OK fine guys.

I can't stand the volatility in the account, I don't think it's necessary to achieve his goals and the risk in any given trade increases as his account increases, to me this violates the first rule of trading, which is to manage risk.

I believe through consistently taking small to medium profits in high-probability setups along with asymetricaly increasing his contracts/shares traded in relation to his account size it would be a cinch for him to increase his accounts size while simultaneously decreasing the risk in any given one trade, or series of trades for that matter.

But if he wants to trade like this, and you cats wanna cheer'em on, who am I say different.

I'll let it be, hopefully you don't want to beat me up to badly.

Good trading,

Jimmy Jam

 

Jimmy
I agree with you but you cannot get to $500k in one year from 76k by doing what you suggest. He obviously has been right on his moves thus far but
time will tell if it works out. If I were him, I would bank $152k (100% return) and only trade with the balance. But, that is me. I am cheap.

 

For such an 'experienced' trader like you are, you don't understand anything about portfolio and risk management. I would agree with you if Neke was putting his life-savings on the line and just started trading. However, from what I have seen from Neke is, that this is a small portion of all his investments and income that he is 'willing' to loose if he doesn't reach his goal. Therefore the 'risk' he is taking on this portion of his investments is perfectly acceptable and widely used.