Honestly, I dont know his entire situation. Im just saying to be careful at this point, thats all. This just might be a fraction of his net worth or it might be the entire thing. There are facts that I dont know. I do know that Neke is up double and he has a kid... I have learned that when a person is up big, they tend to develop a bulletproof spirit and want to trade more aggressively. The opposite attitude should be taken, however, just my humble opinion on the issue. These will be my last words on this issue in this journal as I have communicated what I intended to communicate. This time I mean it, I wont reply again.
This is a fraction of his original account I believe he mentioned this somewhere in the first parts of this thread.
Thanks for expressing all that fear about a blow-up in my account. I would start by asking: what do you define to be a blow-up? A 50% draw-down? 90? 100%? Running the account to negative? I mentioned it near the start of the thread, and maybe I need to repeat: I dabbled into the market as a newbie in December 1999, lost money on a cummulative basis until October/November 2004, at which point my cummulative loss in the market was about 51K from a cumulative deposit of 56K. That was the bottom for me. The balance left was then about 5K. By a ombination of greater commitment to discipline and recording and analysing my trades, together with focused research on potential winning strategies, I turned my trading around, and not only wiped out that loss the following year, but made up to 70K on top. Since that bottom, I have withdrawn a net total of about $220K from the market (meaning the original total amounts brought in - about 56K before the bottom - plus a net of about 164K in addition). I feel at a loss trying to understand what constitutes a blow-up. I have given several scenarios of risk/reward calculations and what it takes to maximize an edge, with attendant drawdowns. I have got a drawdown of 50% since the start of the thread and another of up to 40% in January. To be sure some of the losses could have been better managed/avoided. If somebody thinks the account is in danger of going to 0 or negative, it would be appreciated if you could lay out the scenarios that you have seen in my trades that could lead to that, and the probabilities of those scenarios taking place. That would be far more useful to me, and enlightening to others, than crying wolf. As an illustration here is a scenario that could lead to an account balance going to zero: It is a day before options expiration. GOOG is trading at $495, and is releasing earnings after the bell. I take all the money in my account and buy strike 500 CALLS expiring the day following release of earnings. It does not take a genius to know that the probability of a wipe-out is very high (as high as 50%). Fortunately I have never done something like that, I do not believe I will fall into a temptation to do it. I know the next time I have a 30% drawdown - which will come - someone here will say "I told you so". Let me say it in advance though: a 30% drawdown is quite NORMAL with me. That is not a wipe out by any means! As for net worth, NO we do not have a million in net worth, not even after adding the equity in our homes, retirement savings, the balances in our bank and brokerage accounts (including this). My regular income outside the markets is about $100K, sufficient for our normal needs, though 2K from the market each month does help here and there, while we save the balance.
Neke thanks for the response but the fact that you had to come here and give it sucks. Do your thing, keep at it and let all the guys that do not comprehend people structurally beating the market as you do deal with their own failure and jealousy. Best of luck.
Weekly Update for week 22 ended 07/27/2007 The week is quite good. Realised a loss of 3.4K on an automated trade carried over from last week. That was the only automated trade this week as I attempt to address a software bug; the recent lacklustre performance there has not encouraged me to devote the time to fix it. The market had a turbulent week, so also were my trades. Good to finish the week with a solid gain of 41K (carrying an unrealised loss of 6K to next week). Top good trades this week were: --The put option on AMZN on the follow-on rally Thursday morning. Bought 100 contracts for 42K. realised a solid 33K from the trade --Call option on BIDU on the day following release of earnings. Was able to buy 50 contracts on the pull-back and sold an hour later for a gain of 30K --Shorted AMZN soon after market open on day following earnings release 3000 at 87.80 and closed an hour later for a gain of 8.6K On the negative side made these bad trades: --Bought 100 CALL options on LMT on rally following earnings release. Was way too late to the party. Lost 10K. Ten minutes later decided to buy again, thinking I must have sold at a bottom, was again handed a woeful defeat when I carried the position overnight, losing another 19K. --Got whipsawed in pre-market on APPL after the earnings release. Shorted at 145 covered at 148.8 for a loss of 7.6K. Bought again at 148.4 and sold later at 146.80 for another loss of about 3K (not shown on the bottom trades). Should know better. Attached are the balances and the trend chart for my equity. The GainsKeeper statement does not include the 7K loss on Friday, while the Ameritrade balance includes the unrealised loss of 6K. Code: Balance B/F: 207,329 Gain for the week (Less Interest) 41,518 ------------------------------------------------ Balance C/F: 248,847 Number of Trades 23 Number of Profitable Trades 12 Since Inception of Thread 2/25/2007 - 07/28/2007 Balance B/F: 76,636 Net Gain (Less Margin Interest) 203,211 Cash Withdrawal -31,000 ------------------------------------------------ Balance C/F: 248,847 (Adjusted balance before withdrawals is 279847, up 264% ) Number of Trades 550 Number of Profitable Trades 320 Expected Balance at this time to be on track for Year-End Target : 195,752 Status: Ahead of Target (Based on adjusted balance before withdrawals) Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAINS TYPE ZQNTR 2007-07-26-10-32-17 2007-07-26-14-43-19 10000 42000 75000 32829 OPTIONS (AMZN AUG 90 PUT) BDUHB 2007-07-26-09-37-37 2007-07-26-10-15-52 5000 54580 85000 30324 OPTIONS (BIDU AUG 210 CALL) AMZN 2007-07-25-09-47-32 2007-07-25-10-45-23 3000 254550 263256 8672 SHORT ----------------------------------------------------- AAPL 2007-07-26-08-00-07 2007-07-26-08-06-26 2000 297636 290193 -7468 SHORT LMTHA 2007-07-24-12-31-28 2007-07-24-13-29-59 10000 32000 22500 -9670 OPTIONS (LMT AUG 105 CALL) LMTHA 2007-07-24-13-39-09 2007-07-25-14-51-24 20000 40000 21320 -19030 OPTIONS (LMT AUG 105 CALL) (Before Interest and Other charges) TRANSACTIONS ANALYSIS FROM 2007-02-25 TO 2007-07-28 Current Week | Since Inception of Thread | Method Gains/Loss No Of Profitable | Gains/Loss No Of Profitable Trades Trades | Trades Trades Automated AutoTrade1 -3428 1 0 | 9924 142 80 AutoTrade2 0 0 0 | 6472 5 4 AutoTrade3 0 0 0 | -4523 3 0 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Total Automated -3428 1 0 | 11874 150 84 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Discretionary Long -6560 6 2 | -63346 149 83 Short 3587 3 2 | 49413 142 87 Options(long) 47919 13 8 | 206251 109 66 ----------- -------- ------------ | ----------- ------ ------------ Total Discretionary 44946 22 12 | 192318 400 236 =========== ======== ============ | =========== ====== ============ Net Totals 41518 23 12 | 204191 550 320 =========== ======== ============ | =========== ====== ============
I do limit orders. Of course if it is not a very liquid option, very likely I am paying the market maker the spread (bid/ask). Normally the option has to open for trading, and I see the quotes before I place an order. It would be very unwise to play a market order pre-market, or even a limit order that might turn out to be a market order.
Neke, Thought asked you this before but what do you use to determine what to trade? Do you use fundamentals, news, momentum or sometjhing else to trade? Thanks.
All of the above plus more. Fundamentals and quantitative metrics for my multi-day swings News (mixed with fundamental opinion) for intraday trades Momentum/Contrarian (a little fundamental knowledge of the stock helps) for intraday and overnight as well Something else? Buy credible momentum, sell exuberance, buy panic, sell credible weakness. Is that sufficient?