Neke This may be a dumb question, but how do your losers get to be so big? Do your winners often go on excursions underwater too? (i.e. is this why can't you differentiate between the winners and losers sooner?) I hope you make your target and more.
I'm not going to claim I know Neke's financial situation and his alternatives but have you given any thought that maybe Neke is trying to make his boom to 500k and then start from there? His chance to not have to work for some bank or a boss? If he loses his 76k maybe he can simply get a job that pays for the rest? Maybe just maybe he doesn't want to be a trader making 100k a year? Why grind it out day in day out for your $500 a day when taking a chance/risk now will give you the chance to start grinding it out for $2000 a day? Your high wire walker analogy is interesting but I think the prospects for Neke if this fails are far better than your high wire clown. Your CD idea as Neke pointed out already is absolutely absurd. If your doing well why does that automatically mean your head is going to blow? I thinnk Neke isn't even having an abnormally good or succesful streak. The idea backing such a proposal is one of fear and insecurity, if your not going to continue when you are up you shouldn't have started. Comparison to poker, some people will stop at a certain profit level, which is absurd, if the table is good keep playing and take everything there is to take, if your getting the right odds (which i believe neke is) keep going. Anyway michael I wish you all the best and I'm not trying to be personal just think Neke knows what he is doing better than anyone that comments on these threads, and posts that discourage his progress irritate me a little.
Very true. And to add to this a bit, we can't assume that the account neke is trading on constitutes his entire net worth. How do we know that he doesn't have millions of dollars tied up in other things? If that were true, the risks he is taking would be completely acceptable. In order to give neke asset allocation advice (which I have no urge to do), we'd have to know that critical information obviously.
These "all in" and "full margin" strategies does not seem like trading, but more like we are in Vegas gambling at the tables. There is an old song by Kenny Rogers about knowing when to walk away from the table. This song seems to be fitting at this point. I am all for Neke and wish him luck. Thats the reason why I post these strongly worded warnings. I do not want to see him post a blotter up next of a super-loss. I've said my piece in this regard and wont post again about my feelings.
Just wondering what has changed since you posted this. You don't even know the reasoning behind what seems to you like 50/50 gambles and all-in vegas trades. If someone gave you a choice for 20% of your whole trading capital between 50-1 to role a 6 or gave you 2-1 on heads which would you take? Just trying to show that different people choose different risk return ratio's and different people can stomach different amounts of risk.
Neke is a very good trader employing a relatively high risk method of money management to make outsize gains, and doing quite well at it. Having said that, I am in complete agreement with Michael Scott in reference to pulling some loot out to make sure the wife and kid are well taken care of regardless of whatever does or does not happen with his trading, period. The journal doesn't have to be "75k to 500k by Year End", it could be "75k to 500k in 2+ years, while keeping my family in the good life". Good trading regardless, Jimmy Jam
Im all for high risk spirited trading, but what has changed is that Neke has a newborn. Before, I looked at Neke in a different light and was all for him making these high risk moves. However, I just cant endorse it while he has children under his wing. Id rather see Neke walk away with his 200 grand right now then risk losing it in these high risk/high spirit trades. So before I was having fun looking on at the trades through the ups and downs, but then I have this picture in my mind of his baby and cant seem to support it anymore. Like I said, Im not saying this to bash, but because I care and want to see him walk away ahead rather then behind. Of course, Im assuming that he might make the wrong move. He might just make the right move. At least I have stated my concerns and so I wish him luck with his moves forward.
If you can sustain this, more power to you. But I've done these sorts of doublings with these account sizes, and also come down just as hard. So the advice comes from experience.