now you need change thread into "taking 200k to 25k" by year end 2010 q1 410k becomes 205k -50% q2 205k becomes 102k -50% q3 102k becomes 50k -50% q4 50k becomes 25k -50% better made the generous donation decision now, so you get good tax relief buy top and sell bottom is very common among investors
standing in front of a freight train when its going your direction right after earnings come out.. I wouldn't call that trading, espically when you don't have a long term view on the position, That momentum of the train will run you over that day 110% of the time. Check all your big losses, all of them was standing in front of a train , manual bets.
why is this bad luck? Its bad discipline. Neke, seriously, why did you add size at a time you should have known you have limited control over your position? You made a coin toss style bet, I dont think thats the edge you are seeking, are you?
absolutely correct. Neke, when some of us looked at your large losses harder than you yourself did then there is definitely something wrong. What? You dont look hard enough at your biggest losses and as a result do not learn from them. You still try to fade moves which is ok for some (I myself am a huge proponent of trading breakouts and being on the direction of the trend) but what you are doing is dumb, going against the trend without stop, HOPING for the better. I wonder why you dont investigate a lot more what you actually did wrong!!! If you fade moves but cannot put in a stop or control the situation then DO NOT put on the position, I am very surprised you did not put this down as one of the most important points in your trading repertoire a lot earlier.
The ISRG is what I'd call a revenge trade. Having steel balls can be bad and good for a trader like Neke. I think part of the problem is a lot of your trades are based on emotion. Trading during your regular job makes it even more difficult to trade efficiently. Take a look at selling naked CALLS for big cap plays. Don't go crazy, just enough to slowly build back your bankroll. Apple 270 May CALLS would fetch you 2.45 a contract. Apple would have to go up 25 points in a month before you'd be at a loss. The stock is priced to perfection. BIDU 750 CALLS priced at 3.50. The highest price target on BIDU is 730. Good luck to you
Extending your automation to after hours seems like an idea that will lead to disaster or at least negative unintended results. I think your better off just ensuring you can manually baby sit any afterhours trades, or else not trade them.
yes.. this is some thing which few will understand.. most will say it is picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.. but if you do this wisely , you will gain. i think the key thing is choosing the strike. and days left for expiration. this market suddenly kicks into another gear and you have literally anticipate where you think a stock can realistically run up, till it blows some steam... ANOTHER POINT, I have been observing is: premiums for many OTM positions have fallen , as compared to a year ago.. VIX is down.. hence conventional wisdom says ,that stocks cant really go up any more.. but strangely some of these are coasting through those far OTM positions and ruining the penny pickers..(what worked in the past does not work now) hence.. choosing which OTM positions you sell is a CRITICAL decision. and between selling 4 weeks ahead and 1.5 weeks. I am moving towards smaller time period and smaller reward, (lesser sleepless nights) he he..
This guy is going to blow up. He's been on a losing streak since November of last year. His automated trading seems to be doing well, but he can't help himself from putting on large discretionary trade. I'm assuming he keeps on putting large discretionary trades more for the emotional rush than for the money. Which in 100% of the cases translates into a monetary disaster. Should have bought those rental properties as someone suggested last year instead of giving it all back to Mr. Market.
I really doubt he's putting on these trades for an emotional rush. I'm guessing he's putting on these trades because he's seen certain things happen often in the past on these volatile momentum stocks and believes they're likely to happen again. GOOG beats earnings and sells off hard. BIDU did that once and made a strong comeback. ISRG beats earnings a and starts to run up. Last time they beat earnings they continued to run up significantly. Neke was probably expecting similar reactions and that's why he took the positions he did. Here's the problem: During regular trading hours, you can get yourself out of trouble easily, but in extended hours trading you are purely gambling. There is no "market" after hours and the trading is extremely thin; it's the devil's electronic playground. The reaction to news/earnings calls occurs in pieces and a lot of the action is based on emotion and trigger-happy gambling traders. First you get the basic earnings and revenues announcement and traders react to that (based on their opinion of what "should" happen). Then you get the details about guidance, future margins, sector headwinds/tailwinds, etc. This is the stuff that truly drives price, because this is what the institutional investors are looking at, and they move the market. So you can have an earnings beat and watch the stock sell off hard, have an earnings miss and watch price skyrocket. As a retail trader, you're left scratching your head, forming an opinion, maybe trading off your opinion instead of just listening to what the market is saying and riding along. GOOG and ISRG both have made very strong runs and the earnings calls would have to be stellar to drive price higher. GOOG was already under pressure from its China decision. Without a hugely positive earnings call, it will likely sell off. ISRG pretty much went parabolic last week after a year-long up trend. Without major forward guidance, it will likely sell off. Although they raised guidance, it was only by 2%, and the number of systems they sold met estimates, but in no way beat estimates. So all that big growth priced into the price run was not translated into reality. That's why if you trade earnings in extended hours you are gambling and should expect no better results than placing your bet on red or black at the Roulette wheel. If you want to play earnings on these high priced momentum stocks, you wait until regular trading hours and follow the price action or you buy option straddles/strangles in advance of earnings. That way you don't care if price tanks or skyrockets as long as it does one or the other and stocks like BIDU, GOOG, ISRG, PCLN, and MA nearly always make a serious move.
I appreciate the thread warts and all. Neke you show how difficult it is to trade. The paradox of keeping losses small is that you have to let a lot of trades go. Watching the train leave the station without you is tough but at this point you have to stick to the max loss whatever you deem that to be. People can sit here all day and criticize and/or give advice but this is your journey so enjoy the ride. Remember being rich or poor doesn't make you a better human being. There will be lots of opportunities next week so hang in there. http://www.webtrading.com/phantom/chapter5.htm