"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. " -Benjamin Franklin
devil's advocate: neke IS PROFITABLE, there is a non-zero possibility that MAY change once he screws enough with his approach.
yeh, even check the thread i made which closed, mutiple timeframes is a good thing, that way you wont trade ignorantly, for example ES on a 5 minute chart could be in a perfect uptrend, uh oh, why did it stall and tank? maybe you should have checked the hourlies, you just smashed into the top of a range which has been in play for days, you could then wait for , say the 20 ema to trend down and trade the 5 minute trend until it is 'over'. In other words , trade trends where they make sense, it works better on stocks/eminis, forex too, but i just think forex is too fundamentally driven to think of it as just a technical market. with trends you have two choices - trade them as they appear on a low timeframe with keeping in mind the big S/R levels , or you could just swing trade the trend .... yeh
How does he turn his back on something that has made him wealthy over the past few years? year after year??
Neke is profitable is most areas of his trading, but has a massive hole in his game. When his first position in ESI went against him a certain pre determined amount he should have dumped it and maybe even reversed his position. Refusing to admit you're wrong and averaging down in hopes the market will prove you 'right' is insanity. One thing he did do correctly was cut his loss before it got really ugly. So I do see a positive here. Neke just needs to stick to what he's good at and he'll make dough. The battle isn't Neke vs. the market. It's Neke vs. Neke.
i agree, hasn't he made money? yes all that's wrong, it appears is a bit of risk tolerance ( sigh, another money management post). but seriously if he just kept his risk small these two trades would be a measly 3-4% drawdown as opposed to 9-10%
Hi Neke, I have a question for you. How do you know when your strategy stopped working vs. when it is just going through a normal period of drawdown? Thanks! PA
While I am not certain. I suspect he made a lot of his dough in periods of above average volatility. We are in a period of low volatility (though it may pick up). There just aren't as many countertrend bounces in low VIX environments. That seems to be what he looks for. In low volatility things just keep grinding in one direction. In other words the market has changed. Change with it or accept the consequences.
Neke don't pay attention to the naysayers, just tone down the risk Red Ink:yeh it's low volaitlity at the moment, that doesn't mean it's always goign to be like that. counter-trend movement will come back ....just wait and be patient and let your automated trading play out