Everything looks perfectly clear in hindsight. But don't fall for this trap. It will only hold you back. When in doubt, either stay out or simply cut your losses at their nip. I know, this is easier said than done. On a related note, your misgiving gives rise to the importance of market timing. No matter how correct you may have been, if you entered at the wrong time you're bound to lose. As you may know, timing is everything in this game. Be that as it may, I have no doubt you will pick yourself up in no time. Good luck.
Sell in May. If the market tanks over the next six moths and vol shoots up, nekes account could take off like you have drawn in your picture.
Spot on! This trap kills traders as they dwell on dream profits that "could have been" and then violate their trading rules down the road. Every trade is new; what something did the last 10 times doesn't mean it will repeat that move. That's where tossing aside your ego and exercising inviolable risk management comes in. Think about those big losses where you capitulate at the actual pivot point in the trade. You put on the trade and it moves against you and you know it always reverses eventually at point "x", so you hang in there, remembering the last time you took a loss only to see it become a huge profit. But this time the loss grows until you are forced to throw in the towel because the move against you has become ridiculous. And that means the true reversal is at hand. Now replay that trade: You put on the trade and it moves against you, drawing down your account 2%, boom you're stopped out and you either reverse your position or keep your eye on the price action for a better entry. You try again, stopped out again down another 2%. Price keeps moving against what you expect and the volume is picking up big time, meaning supply or demand is going to be exhausted soon. Sure enough there's a pivot and you jump on board and this time you caught the wave you wanted and your account is up 8% on the move. This pivot point is the washout point where, had you held the loser, you had to capitulate because of the drawdown. As Redneck Trader posted recently, you can't trade that soft left edge, you gotta play the hard right edge. EVERY TRADE IS BRAND NEW.
OR, "You put on the trade and it moves against you, drawing down your account 2%, boom you're stopped out." and, you move on to the next and entirely different trade instead of trying to re-enter the same market in the same direction when the market has clearly indicated that it is going very strong against your bias. Losers average losers.
Isn't it possible that it only went down because you got out? Or, that it wouldn't have gone up that much to begin with had you not gotten in? And that perhaps somebody knows how much pain viz time/price you can take? Be afraid, be very afraid.
bwolinsky, Neke's journal has been on ET for years and it is one of the most interesting threads. He is a real trader not just some troll with 1000s of posts. So why does it bother you ? Why do you want a 3rd party to confirm his trades ? Is he offering you a service, is Neke asking to manage your money ? No ! Please stop the drama. His journal is great, you should watch and learn. If you don't like it leave. He is not asking anything from you, please do the same. 05-11-09 04:21 AM -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from monee: Agree: Everyone should realize Neke has never even hinted at wanting anything from anyone, and if they don't think his journal is legit it certainly has legit drawdowns. All these stupid comments continue and Neke could get disgusted and pull the journal. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hey Neke, Just a quick question and throwing an idea into the group which some people may see as weak and others may agree with. Do you size your trades with the size of the oppertunity? It seems like last year when the sh*t hit the fan you were raking it in when everyone lost their mind and the market would flip and turn and it looked like if you were on the ball there were oppertunities everywhere. This year and especially recently you may have spotted MASSIVE oppertunities but I really don't believe the edge has been as big. So an idea may be to trade smaller as trading a 2% oppertunity with 10% expectations is very likely to burn. Furthermore I really believe the downswing has filtered out a lot of the more negative EV traders and that the traders left today are making the market more effecient than then second half of 2008 when you performed so well. Until there is a severe upswing and Joe and Bob enter back in the market I think it is realistic to lower expectations a tad until larger oppertunities present themselves. Just an idea but I am curious to hear what you think and if your analysis says something different in that the current oppertunities ARE as big as in previous more profitable times. Last thing, I have been the trader trying to get to even for the week/month/year many times and know that I overtrade and try to force stuff, look back and see if you stand by all the trades you did even if there were only 20. Gluck screwing the head back on a little tighter and keep the focus. FGBS
Don't worry about this loss. What's done is done. You're still in the game. You have a full time job, you're not going to go hungry. Sit on your hands until a surefire, no lose play comes up and trade that. You will make money, it will be no surprise to you that you did, and your confidence, collectedness, and cash will rise. The market will be there, don't rush to make it back. I have and others have blown out accounts that way. You have too much to lose. The easy play will come. Whether it's 3 days, 1 week, or 2 weeks, it will come as sure as snow. LISTEN TO ME NEKE, I'M SERIOUS and my advice is right. Wilt
What did you do last year that was successfull? Look over your charts of trades that you took, and re-read your last journal. if you dont keep a copy of the trades you take, i'd strongly recomend doing that.