I will predict he either blows up, or (if lucky) he realises the risks being run at some point and scales down his size beforehand. Constant adventuring will leave you broke, and the longer you get away with it, the more likely it becomes, due to overconfidence. I know of no exceptions, and the logic is basic maths/stats, so I don't see why neke would escape this fate when tens of thousands before him have not. There is a reason why *every* trader with a long, successful track record emphasizes risk control. That's because without it, you don't get to have a long, successful track record in the first place. Notice the lack of uber-traders who say "Sure, risk 5-10% per trade, and 20% down weeks are just the price of doing business". There are old traders, and there are bold traders, but there are no old, bold traders.
Just to clarify my last post, I don't mean this as a personal attack of any kind, it's just my view on the whole notion of taking big punts in trading. Too many people who would otherwise be successful - and keep their gains - have got badly burned by constantly swinging for the fences.
I have a different view on Neke's account/trading: 1. It is not necessarily inconsistent with money management a-la Kelly. Kelly's fraction can also have people throw up. 2. I am also not ruling out that what we see is just 1/4 of Neke other assets. So his ground is not zero, but probably 400K (which may be dorment somewhere earning a little but safe). I did not read all what Neke wrote, but if he wrote that is all he owns, then I will believe it, and he would be a very/too brave man!
I shall take time to compute all the statistics, and respond to the issues, but attached here is the list of returns of all trades taken this year (since 1/13/2008 when this thread started), split between options and stocks. options are long calls and long puts, and stocks are long or short. For options and long stock the figure presented is saleprice / purchaseprice (so buying an option at 12 and selling at 20, gives 1.66666). For short sales, the figure is 2 - coverprice / shortprice (example short 100, cover 80, gives 1.20 (20% gain). No leverage (percentage of account used) is given, just the raw entry/exit prices. Average leverage on options was 16.6% of equity balance at the time of trade, while for stocks it has been 83%. I guess the question to be answered is : what percentage of account could I have used on the options per trade, and on the stocks per trade, to maximize returns, assuming these trades were sequential (one completed before the other). Have I exceeded that limit in reality?
For options I prefer to know my maximum risk beforehand. That is determined by the premium I pay for the calls or puts, so basically I only go long, never short. See the answer below I took time to analyse my trades till date (1/14/2008 - 12/12/2008), and these are the statistics: OPTIONS Average win: 17.5% Average loser : 18.5% (Note the figure is based on cost price, not percentage of my total account. So if I bought at 10 and sold at 15, that is 50% win irrespective of the leverage used). Number of of Trades: 322 Win Rate : 63.04% STOCKS Average Win : 2.04% Average loser: 2.46% (Same comments on percentage as for options). No of Trades : 805 Win Rate : 59.1% --------------- I went ahead to determine the leverage for Options and Stocks separately, that would have maximized the returns assuming all trades were sequential, and that I could have obtained the same prices irrespective of size. For options the maximizing leverage was 61% of account (simple spreadsheet simulation, could be determined as well by differential calculus or kelly formula). At that leverage the options alone could have generated 6300% compounded. For stocks the optimizing leverage was 156% of account. At that level the stocks alone could have generated 262% compounded. Compounding both stocks and options at each of the maximum would generate a total compounded of 24000% (My head is spinning!). The draw-down associated with that would undoubtedly be mind-boggling. From my earlier statement on my average sizing it is apparent, on average, I am operating at way below the optimizing level. I am much more risk-averse than Cutten and some other folks think! I have given all the thoughts I possibly can about the risk level I am taking. I mentioned at the start of the thread I am operating at a level I could expect a 40% draw-down. The maximum that has happened this year has been less than that! Last year it was about 50%. I am not sure what you are seeing that I haven't already seen in all the 4 years since I bottomed in the market, and have been generating gains every year since then. I would appreciate concrete analysis based on the facts presented rather than some notion that a fast run-up inevitably precedes a blow-up. If you are just throwing darts without an edge, yes!, but if it is based on proven edge, I need a better explanation than that. As the account grows, i will probably scale down the average size, not because of risk-aversion, but because of the impact of size. It would be silly trying to exploit a 1% intra-day mis-pricing on a stock trading only $10million worth of shares per day with 100% of an account with $50million balance. The slippage will simply wipe out the edge and more.
neke what is your optimal F?as a long one stays very away from that, the only are risk big painful drawdowns
Neke: I like what you are doing! Your ratios for options tell me that you selling $68.45 for $110.02 (if I did not make a miscalc). That is a profit margin of 60% on each trade. I also like your analysis of size once you are heavier. I have a different analysis, that can help you determine your bar and horizon. I can share it with you in private. I think that what you should do later is have two subpositions. The options account traded for lower holding periods, and a stock position with fatter bars and longer periods to address the question of stock capacity. You need more bodies to pay you, and since there is only a limited number of them during a day, going higher will allow you to milk more pockets. You will have a problem with options if you were to use them for longer period because of premium decay for longer holding. I will PM you. Also did you check how profitable you were on these occasions: 1. Options expiration day or day before. 2. Thursday for puts buying. My guess is that your numbers should be better on these days. Could you check this? PS: Shortie: if you are reading this, imagine team: RFT+Neke. They should be able to clean the markets!
Is this why you are so resentful and envious of the more successful persons here? I sincerely wish you would put aside your hatred and accept your present status, always remember the only person responsible for your failure in life, beyond yourself is your father and no one in this forum owes you anything for your short falls in education and life. Hence I don't think you should be trading utilizing the little sporadic income you have at times. I hope you wouldn't engage in trashing this fine thread too, just continue with your ass licking and you'll be fine!
Weekly Update for week 49 ended 12/19/2008 Good week, up 70K (16%). Looks like a jinx for me on Mondays, always starting out on losses. Must be the eagerness to start making money after the week-end. Lost 17K total, shorting BIDU, longing SPY and a couple other trades. Made some comeback on Tues, buying SPY on the rally after the fed cut, offset by my decision earlier in the day to short BBY after earnings. On Thur, shorted 2000 FSLR at 138 (thought it had rallied too much). Covered later at 142, losing 8K. Came back Thursday, and the stock opened strong again, shorted 3000 @ 145, watched as it fell, bounced again to 143.5, hit it with another 3000 shares, and covered later in the day @ 135.70, netting 52K. Good revenge, although a bit overleveraged! Friday enjoyed the rally on RIMM shares after earnings. After being beaten so much, it was obvious that any good news on earnings will be cause for a rally. Bought 8000 shares on open @ 40, closed 2 minutes later at 40.86, netting 7K (thought it was toooo fast!). Watched as it went higher, then pulled back to 41 shorted after noon, hit it with 10000 shares and exited an hour later at 42.33, netting another 12K. Good note heading into the last trading week before the holidays. Code: Opening Balance: 450,546 Net gain for the week 69,882 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 520,428 Number of Trades 19 Number of Profitable Trades 13 Since Inception of Thread 01/13/2008 - 12/19/2008 Opening Balance: 102,615 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 442,813 ------------------------------------------------ Balance Before Withdrawal: 545,428 (Up 432%) Cash Withdrawal -25,000 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 520,428 Number of Trades 1146 Number of Profitable Trades 678 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE FSLR 2008-12-18-09-41-31 2008-12-18-15-25-09 6000 813319 865500 52176 SHORT SPY 2008-12-16-14-39-38 2008-12-16-16-07-43 10000 898080 918000 19915 LONG RIMM 2008-12-19-12-03-54 2008-12-19-13-09-32 10000 410000 423300 13298 LONG RIMM 2008-12-19-09-30-52 2008-12-19-09-32-12 8000 320000 326990 6988 LONG -------------------------------------------------------- SPY 2008-12-15-12-22-42 2008-12-15-14-13-18 10000 879000 874000 -5005 LONG BIDU 2008-12-15-09-33-55 2008-12-15-10-03-08 3000 349410 342689 -6722 SHORT FSLR 2008-12-17-10-45-47 2008-12-17-15-54-47 2000 283991 276000 -7993 SHORT BBY 2008-12-16-09-05-34 2008-12-16-16-23-16 30000 812372 802588 -9789 SHORT