Just a repeat of what I wrote in some other place: I learnt to trade by of course trying and failing over the four years from end 1999 to November 2004 when I bottomed. It was after I started keeping detailed records and analysing things I began to develop strategies I thought could work. If you are new, I guess it will take time to read and digest some of the books and online material on trading and learning to apply them by yourself. Unfortunately I am not in a position to advise whether you should invest at this time or not.
No, I do not envisage stringing 50 weeks of 5% each. What I said is an average of 5%. If you followed last years figures, it ranged from minus 50% week to +70% week. I shall try to manage the volatility, but no it is not possible to have 5% steady returns like a CD deposit (0.06% a week). Draw-downs are part of the game. It is a trading journal. Trading involves speculation. If that is what you call gambling, fine. It is not to me: I am not just throwing darts!
Last year, started with 76K, and withdrew 82K before end of journal, with another 30K after the end. That means the original investment was already out. I stagger the withdrawals: I guess that is the difference.
if your weekly average is +5%, you will not necessarily compound 103k into $1.2m. you'll likely fall short. you need to get exactly 5% each week with no drawdowns to reach $1.2m.
There is more than a little bit of irony in someone who goes by the name of blackjack007 calling this a gambling journal. You have made your point, and neke gave you the appropriate response. OK. *** Now we all know he needs to average 5% per week over the stated time period to make his goals ... that means some weeks he could get +35% and the next two weeks he could be down 10% and 5% respectively and still be ahead of the game. *** Now lets all sit back and see if he can do it. I certainly hope so, as I also hope for me and everyone else to accomplish their trading goals for 2008.
OK, I will join your ride. BTW, I noticed there are some ECN brokers around, would you consider use an ECN broker, since they usually offer a cheaper fee.
Great answer and response. It had become clear from this thread and the last I read ('07) that you have given the whole process much thought and are trading within your risk tolerance. I am happy to see you are minimally affected by comments from others. Stay true to yourself, as that is the only way to trade with conviction!