Take a guess on countries future

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Genevian Speculator, Feb 13, 2020.

  1. I want to start this thread like a poll: Which country do you believe to prosper the most in the coming 30 years?

    The reason why Im asking is: I'm Swiss and Switzerland got this unique problem that its currency just rises in value over time. But unfortunately Wages are declining (don't believe the official statistics, they intend to attract more migration and are not trustworthy therefore) while living expenses and rents are rising heavily. Because the rise of the CHF every investment you do abroad is becoming a zero sum game. Buying Euros to invest in Germany? Horrible idea, the Euro will lose what your investment makes.

    In 30 years many Swiss people will have to seek retirement abroad because of the situation earlier mentioned. So I am as a professional investor asked every month at least once by friends and the like where they should put their money in. I give them the advice to spread, but can't tell which countries to give more weight to.

    So I'm asking you: Where would you put Swiss Francs in if you had any?
     
  2. Overnight

    Overnight

    Cocoa bean futures.
     
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  3. tiddlywinks

    tiddlywinks

    IMO, choices are few... USD and US Equities are at the top. Anything Euro is at the bottom. RE is a no, given the seek for new taxes almost everywhere. Obviously, Im talking about for longer-term holdings... on any given day or week things can go opposite.
     
  4. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    82993958-FD20-4C22-A1EC-ECC983A6102C.jpeg

    “Because the rise of the CHF every investment you do abroad is becoming a zero sum game.”

    It means the other investment underperform CHF. I don’t understand why you want change your CHF against something that underperform.
    And once you retire, you’ll be able to credit (withdraw) your CHF account for any expenses.

    Otherwise for diversification :
    The least layer the better.
    upload_2020-2-13_23-48-10.png

    https://www.oecd.org/cfe/regional-policy/multi-level-governance-and-decentralisation.htm
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
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  5. SteveM

    SteveM

    Believe it or not, from a government finances standpoint, Russia is now one of the most fiscally sound nations on earth...yes, trust is very low, but the government's finances are in order which cannot be said for most of the world, especially the debt-laden G7.

    Also, Russia is very well geographically placed to feed China's massive and growing energy and agricultural needs. The China silk road connecting Asia to Europe is going to be a very real thing in coming decades, and tons of goods will move across Russian roadways as the gap between the EU and China shrinks further.

    Obviously there are tons of problems in Russia still, but they are starting from such a low point, that I think the country could do well for decades to come.
     
  6. Sig

    Sig

    That's a little bit like saying that someone who just filed for personal bankruptcy 2 years ago is a good credit risk because they're starting at such a low point and don't have much debt!
     
  7. %%
    My personal opinion; USA + Switzerland have lot going for them. AT first glance , sounds like the Swiss have reasonable taxes. I live in a low tax state, TN , USA. WE have no state income tax; but TN has a lot of TN cities with 5-8% motel tax. I think Switzerland's is a 3.7 %? One website said they don't pay taxes on shares sold?? [The Swiss could be better than many think; they have common sense about CO2, which is a plant food] Hope this helps:caution::caution:,:cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool:
     
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  8. Russia could hypothetically become an economic powerhouse on the level of the US but they need to solve their corruption, which is kind of difficult when the guy in charge is the master thief, and the (lack of) morals trickle down from there.
     
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  9. tiddlywinks

    tiddlywinks

    I misread and answered a different question. My bad. Sorry

    To answer the question I need the world reset to occur that I expect within the next 10-15 years. And that puts China in the top spot. I'm reluctant to invest country specific with a 30 years plus time horizon for now.

    IMO, South Africa is poised to be a major player in fossil fuel, in the long term future. But that is not a 30 year beeline with the turmoil I expect.
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
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  10. jharmon

    jharmon

    Hedge your currency exposure.
     
    #10     Feb 13, 2020
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