Here is my updated intraday signal record. DATE MKOP T= W/L WIN% 8-2 UP 1.5 27/3 90% 8-3 UP 1.5 18/1 95% 8-6 DWN 1.0 18/1 95% 8-7 UP 1.5 35/8 81% 8-8 DWN 1.5 47/1 98% 8-9 DWN 1.0 24/2 92% 8-10 DWN 1.0 25/1 96% 8-13 DWN 2.0 33/0 100% 8-14 UP 2.0 37/1 97% 8-15 DWN 2.0 34/1 97% 8-16 UP 2.0 35/2 94%
this list includes yesterdays signals. DATE MKOP T= W/L WIN% 8-2 UP 1.5 27/3 90% 8-3 UP 1.5 18/1 95% 8-6 DWN 1.0 18/1 95% 8-7 UP 1.5 35/8 81% 8-8 DWN 1.5 47/1 98% 8-9 DWN 1.0 24/2 92% 8-10 DWN 1.0 25/1 96% 8-13 DWN 2.0 33/0 100% 8-14 UP 2.0 37/1 97% 8-15 DWN 2.0 34/1 97% 8-16 UP 2.0 35/2 94% 8-17 UP 1.0 19/0 100%
I have looked at it in the last couple of days for interday charts, i.e. daily intervals on historic charts for the last six months time period and it seems to work very well but I haven't tried to quantify the results. I'm strictly interested in day trading but the simultaneous signals only occur at the end of down trends. The sell signals are't nearly as accurate and that's not great for me because I like to sell short. Just going to have to get used to it somehow. regards
Well, good luck with it - phenomenal win rates! Even if you only have to play only from the Long Side, a winning system is a winning system. I'd be interested to see how it does in a long-term down-trending market.
Maybe I'll start documenting the interday results Monday. The results will be slow coming cause I want to do it in real time. Here is how I'll do it. I'll have to keep up with charts making a 52 week low and watch for the signal to be generated and then see what happens. The signal is generated at the turning point in less drastic downtrends as wll but the 52 week low is probably the best place to watch for them.
If you have programming skills, you may want to back-test for a lengthy period. Not sure who your broker is, but TD Ameritrade has a tool (not well publicized) that you can use for free as a customer, that allows you to obtain intra-day data down to 1-min intervals. I forget how far back you can go - haven't used it in a few years, but 2 years seems like a timeframe that I remember gathering intraday data for. Then, if you have a back-testing tool like WealthLab (or equivalent), you can import data, and write some custom code to backtest over a long duration. You can account for things like slippage, reasonably. I can't tell you how much money I've saved (not necessarily made!) by programming algorithms that have worked in the short-term, that failed long-term. Many systems can make money over the short-term; the true test is whether is makes money long-term, or winds up blowing out your account.
Thanks for the information but I don't swingtrade. I've been trading since 1992 and have used several strategies that quit working after a while. I've been using this one for a short while now and its the second best strategy that I have ever had. Of course since it doesn't work 100% of the time, then the reaction to downtrends of the particular stocks are the most important factor.
Not talking about swing trading. Talking about testing day trading strategies with short-term data (1 min, 5 min, etc.) over a long period of time (2 - 10 years). I have used this technique many times to eliminate a particular day trading strategy, which appeared to work well over the short-term, but which failed over longer stretches of time. Just suggesting that you might want to quantitatively formalize your strategy, rather than eye-balling.....it's more reliable in the end.
Do you need to watch those 40 charts or you use screening program like RadarScreen (TS) to generate the signals?