I noticed the threads......lets put this to rest right now. -Major system trades placed were 2 limit orders and 1 stop entry. ***These limit orders were placed HOURS in advance based on Technicals. *** -Discretionary trading for the rest of the marks, yes i'm perfectly capable of getting out of a losing position without hard stops. I obviously prefer scalping. This is my trade log for the past 1 week on an hourly frequency (orders place on <=M5 timeframes typically). It's a joke to me to say TA doesn't work. We all like pictures here.....so I attached it below.
I have two indicators that when their signals coincide precisely then the probability of a successful trade is very high. Here are the results since Aug.2: DATE MKOPEN W/L WIN% 8-2 UP 27/3 90% 8-3 UP 18/1 95% 8-6 DWN 18/1 95% 8-7 UP 35/8 81% 8-8 DWN 47/1 98% 8-9 DWN 24/2 92% 8-10 DWN 25/1 96% There are always between 50 and 40 stocks in my que but only a portion provide a signal each day. These are all buy signals and interestingly, the short signals are not nearly as accurate.
Yes, I have the exact same results in equities with non-discretionary system trading... Long setups work reliably, short setups don't... The math is a little different when the market is falling.
The analysis is from the Weekly and Daily level. I'll post them real time from now on and turn this thread into something useful. I don't prefer this style of trading, but it's worked the best for me over the years.
DATE MKOP W/L WIN% 8-2 UP 27/3 90% 8-3 UP 18/1 95% 8-6 DWN 18/1 95% 8-7 UP 35/8 81% 8-8 DWN 47/1 98% 8-9 DWN 24/2 92% 8-10 DWN 25/1 96% 8-13 DWN 19/5 79%
I'm shopping this inquiry around. Without using any software or metrics and just eye balling........... does a 10 year chart for a long term pairs trader willing to stay in the trade for many weeks to a few months have any usefulness at all. In other words, momentarily, disregard more significant short term modalities in the decision making of putting on a trade here. The operative phrase here: "any use at all" for the prospect of shorting HOT and going long HST. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3598742>
Ah I see another stupid thread about TA working / not working. First, an absolute must in any logical argument for you dumb wits: State your terms of reference and definitions from which to start the discussion. What methods are included in the term Technical Analysis and what are not. Otherwise you can all claim that black is white and vice versa because you all end up talking at cross purposes. Stupidity ad nauseaum.
There is a lot of asymmetry in the timing and strength of an up move vs. a down move, this is essentially a market truth. The exception being inverse ETFs and such.