If you choose a bad car you have to push, if you choose a good car it will run without any pushing. Same applies to trading (or anything else). Make the correct choice, for which you unfortunately need knowledge. If you have no knowledge you will never find anything. Lack of knowledge is the main obstacle. Most people overestimate their own intellectual capacities. I made already many times this comparison: 90% of the drivers are sure they are in the top 10%. Which is mathematically impossible. Most traders who fail will never admit that they are themselves the reason of the failure. Too bad for their ego. Nobody wants to look stupid.
No, I don't think it necessarily needs to involve advanced math. While I know calculus - my model is based on simple math and parameters, although it took me many years to think through the logic. The point is that if you want to consistently take money out of the markets you need to do the research needed. And that's likely to take you years. If you don't want to do that, then do something else. My trading account had an ROI of 13.3 % this week alone on 3 trading days. I still have challenges and sticking points which I'm adressing, but I'm at a place where I most often have fairly good understanding of what's going on and what's most likely to happen. Roughly. For example - if you've made a prediction, you need to actually trade that prediction. This means execution, stops, missing entries, chasing entries, taking risk, facing drawdown, fast moving live markets, etc. Very diffferent from back-testing a historical market on a dead chart.
Correct. Predicting the futur is impossible, you can try to get as close as possible to it, but real predicting is impossible. I already told to a few friends that they should never start to trade as they don't have the qualifications to do it successfully. I don't want them to lose time and money.
agree to mister. We are all different with different capabilities, mindset, competencies & preferences. We presented our views. So it is up to OP to accept / reject / ignore question it.
FJ,Fwiw,there was a technical program called Stratasearch that was basically a backtester/ optimizer that could look at unlimited technical rules and run thousands of simulations on varying combinations of technical and money management rules.. I do not recall seeing more than 10 systems return 50 percent in sample,and none of them performed well in WFA.. On the other hand ,I have 2 buddies who trade a modified Canslim approach and do put up 50 percent... Judging by your last 2 threads,it appears you are looking for the grail..There is no one single fundamental metric (Piotroski/Greenblatt not included),techical system that will bring you to the promised land..
The author posted on ET for awhile. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-best-ta-book-ever-published.79465/page-8#post-1250079
If you want to do this to practice programming and back testing then fine but you're eating your time otherwise. Indicators don't work by themselves, markets change too. All the indicators work some of the time! The trick is in applying them
The simplest indicators can be useful but of course, alone they are worthless, they're just one component of at least more than a few. In the end, there's only so much you can do with OHLCV data, additional data of course changes everything.