Lol what battles are you talking about? Anyway it sounds like you want to believe in technicals. Best of luck with your trading.
Traders always meet this same problem; They gotta trade but how much analysis do you apply to get the job done. The more analysis, (doesnt matter whether TA or FA), the more contradictions and complications are added to the job. You've seen charts with a gazzillion TA lines, that's nonsense. But so is FA with a bunch ratios and guesses at projecting future earnings. PE ratios for example are meaningless, a low PE can mean it's cheap but can also mean it's a dud. I always like to think of pit traders in their day, did they sit there trading all day with a calculator, spreadsheets, or charts in their hands? No, they traded by noise (sentiment) largely I believe. What about algos you ask? For me they are picking up the noise in the room.
I don't like trendlines too much myself, but I love horizontal lines, such as support or resistance. I find that your type of analysis can only work when the market behaves rationally, but I don't believe it does. The markets these days also don't seem to follow any requirement of making money, and for a while it seemed like what the FED said made the biggest difference, but even that is in question now. So I think with your type of analysis, we are left always trying to figure out why a stock might move, and then hoping that it does what we think it will do based on what we think is important for that stock. It seems like its overly complex and fraught with too many assumptions. On the flip side, if we just learn to read the price chart, I think that tells us everything we need to know. We don't need to understand why the price is moving, but just the fact that it is. I understand if major funds need to do analysis like you suggest, but for us retail guys, I just think we need to follow what they are buying or selling, and this shows up in the price chart. But I think there are people on here who vouch for your trading ability, like Dest, so I'm sure that your system and edge is absolutely one way to make a killing. Thanks again for the detailed examples. My god, imagine if @destriero explained one of his trades like you explain your process... LOL
BHP, the largest cap stock on the asx, I didn't realise just how much its fundamentals change, day by day, week by week, month by month.
You could trade this perfectly with a polynomial trendline I must say. You'll see, "it bounced here so it works"
Wow! Now do FPI. Too late, it's already my largest equity position (excluding SGOV, TFLO, USFR). Some traders are quite good with technicals alone. https://www.tradersprofitcompass.com/profit-from-peter-brandts-45-years-on-wall-street/
That guys win rate is less than 50% which means he probably could improve his pnl if he flipped a coin instead of used “price action”. My hit rate is 65%… only add things to your process that increase your hit rate, or it’s a waste of time.