TA patterns have 100% win rate

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by trader3cnd, Jan 27, 2012.

  1. I was talking to a certified technical analyst the other day and he insisted that no chart pattern is valid unless it moves in the expected direction and reaches its target. He then argued that all valid TA chart patterns are 100% accurate and the ones which do not evolve as expected are just not valid patterns. Thus, TA patterns are 100% profitable he argued.

    Am I missing something here or is this plain stupid hindsight?
  2. hkrahra


    ''''''unless it moves in the expected direction''''''

    ''''''a certified technical analyst''''''

  3. We conclude: If the pattern works out, it will be a valid technical pattern. And if it does not work out, it will not be a valid technical pattern. Back to square one.
  4. Oh brother... even the biggest, richest, and most famous traders will tell you their win rate is 55% at best. Even Steve Cohn of SAC capital has stated this win rate at about 52%. (And I heard he's under investigation for possible illegal insider trading...)

    That said... I once went through a 5-year period with a 70% win rate. Cocky as I was about that, turned out to be a short-term anomaly.
  5. Bob111


    damn! i have just one question to that guy-how much did he made in 2011, using this logic and approach(if there is any)?

    on other hand-he might be right..the only problem is-you need to find this pattern :p
  6. .....................................

    question: was this guy ever a politician ............:)

    you have also answered your own question

    playing thru.


  7. My view:

    My patterns have a 90% Winrate, because thats the most i can give them. 10% are always uncertain, because everything could happen.

    But when i have a pattern and i get right into it, then it will work out for 90% chance. Very rare the 10% will stop the move on the half way, but at least it moves the half way.

    Of course you must know this patterns and uniqe strategies.
    But here the difficult part for me, is only the timing.

    Because how i trade is very like a brain surgery, because i have to wait until all the little parts fit perfect toghether, only then i must enter the trade, because right then price will move.
    And so i can say, i have a 90% win rate.

    But how i said this is very difficult and i can only do it with discipline.

    I also miss a lot of entrys, because this is only open for a certain time window.

    Thats how it is. Its not easy. But timing is everything for me, for entry and exit. Just in and out of the trade.

    I dont know how others trade, but this how i do it, is the only way i have found over the years where i really have the edge and can pull out money of the markets over and over.

    At last i must say, that it is for me more worse to miss a entry on a setup, then losing money with a mistake.

    i only lose money, if i do a mistake. and the only mistake i do, is i go in to early. I do it often and it is my biggest burden. And the often i have it under control and be more disciplined the better trades i make.

    The biggest problem is the timefactor, with going in to early, because, while i have to wait for other timeframes to confirm for a perfect entry, while i am already in the trade, --- i have other setups on other markets, where i would enter correct and would be in profit right after it, --- but so i have to wait.

    And this sucks extreme, i hate it and it is really a problem and just want never do it again.

    Discipline is everything, its just like poker.

    Discipline is the key. Discipline.

    Successfull traders know what i am talking about.:)
  8. Bob111


    congratulations!with such high success rate you are probably going to own all the money in the world in no time..
  9. I agree with all of you today...

    TA is 100% profitable but we are not. Simple...
  10. TA is very profitable for the person who owns the charting program.:D
    #10     Jan 27, 2012