TA & PA is only for the 10% of the traders that succeed.

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by oraclewizard77, Sep 24, 2012.

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  1. oraclewizard77

    oraclewizard77 Moderator

    TA & PA is only for the 10% of the traders that succeed. Yes, I said it. The other 90% of traders believe in idiotic stuff like price drivers and hold positions into the weekend when reports like http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-slip-in-electronic-trading-2012-09-23?siteid=YAHOOB can come out and wipe them out.

    The 90% of other traders who lose will come to ET and start threads like Trading is Dumb, and force Barron to ban their asses.

    If prices were really random, you should be able to flip a coin to succeed in trading, but that will not work. If prices were really random, I should not have been able to trade with no losing days and no losing trades for the last 2 weeks on equal risk vs reward including tonight.

    Remember the person on the other side of the trade is not always a super computer run by JP Morgan. It may just be someone that is too lazy or stupid to spend the years and analysis needed to develop a profitable edge. It takes at least 4 years to graduate college, yet some people think they can start trading in 1 week with no training or experience after watching one of those Forex commercials on TV.
  2. wrbtrader


    Why is the member emg still here. :confused:

    Lots of complaints by other members directly to Baron, Joe and moderators and lots of complaints made publicly within his threads. Yet, emg and similar like members still remains and still posting.

    My point, Baron must be banning folks for additional reasons instead of via the sole reason someone is bashing traders.

    Seems the trick for any "trader basher" is to make useful post elsewhere at ET and you'll be "allowed" to bash traders anytime you want. :p
  3. oraclewizard77

    oraclewizard77 Moderator

    Well, I think you need to usually go 1 step too far to be banned. For example, the last user banned by Baron taunted Baron by posted a Youtube video of ButtHead saying "are you taunting me?"

    It's good for you posting here, since we do seem to get other people with post counts under 10 that either are trolls or spammers. Also, like you said, EMG and others start threads about TA not working. It's funny all the losers that are jealous of some of us that can actually trade with high win%.

    I do want to thank some of the real traders here for providing me with edge winning tips and talking to me on the phone or Skype like NoDoji without charging me any money. However, I'm glad I did not get fooled by the gurus that claim to be able to trade and then crawl back into their hole and cry like bitches when their trades go 10 - 20 points against them.

    All we are getting in the TA section are losers posting TA does not work, so I wanted to start a thread to counter these morons. The truth is small traders can succeed. You can make money trading futures with less than a $ 3,000 account. Don't listen to the jealous ass wipes that want you to quit or not try because they can't trade without blowing out their accounts. I don't need to be in any loser guru's room who begs me to join since my trades work while they lose money. Once you practice and get good, its very possible to win at trading week after week.

  4. the1


    You've obviously never studied quantitative finance. What field do you think Banks recruit from? Yup -- Quantitative Finance. An example of a job listing. You won't see anything about "ability to read charts" LOL


  5. oraclewizard77

    oraclewizard77 Moderator

    I actually agree with you. I think there are a % of traders that make money in other fields, but my goal really was countering the dozen of hater threads that seem to keep coming up on ET with names like "All traders lose, they just lose." or "TA does not work"or "I have lost money so you will too". You get the drift.

    I have seen many listings for traders prop firms that recruit traders who are not quants.


  6. the1


    You seem to think the market is not random because you've hit a string of winning days. The market absolutely is random and some very sharp fellows tend to agree with me.


  7. CT10Gov


    How... Is this remotely true??? In fact, its readily apparent to any one who has taken even the most basic stats class that this is wrong. And no, martingale argument doesn't apply, since you are talking about price randomness and not unlimited doubling down.

    Mind you, I agree with some of your other points. But this is nonsense.

  8. oraclewizard77

    oraclewizard77 Moderator

    Actually, I know I am right and could care less what you think, no offense.

    This is what the market does, and I am not going to waste my time proving it to you.

    1) The market will trend for a certain % of the time.

    2) The market will range for a certain % of the time.

    3) The market will move sideways for a certain % of the time.

    If one is able to recognize what the market is doing during the time period one is trading, then he or she can make money. Being able to make money over a long period of time is proof by itself. Some of my winning systems were number 1 out of 7,000 systems over a long time period, and others paid me enough money that I had to file taxes just on the subscriber revenue alone.

    I also got some revenue from on an earlier version of my current system, but my trades move so fast now, that its impossible to translate them to a tracking website without massive slippage.

  9. oraclewizard77

    oraclewizard77 Moderator

    The following are the results of a scalping system. This is not my system, but I want to illustrate the power of scalping when so many losers think only the machines from JP Morgan can do it.

    Trades 1,816
    # Profitable 1,427 (78.6%)
    # months tracked 41
    Profitable months 25 (61.0%)
    Avg trade duration 3.3 hours
    Annual return (compounded) 64.2%

    Started $10,000
    Buy Power $52,989

    So we can see that those who say you need a $ 100,000 - $ 1 million account are wrong. You can start with much less money and be able to trade. Also, we can see the sample size is viable with over 1,000 trades over a long time period. Assuming the trader does not go insane and hold onto a losing trade too long, its a good system.

    This is also not a back test. This is real money being traded live.
  10. the1


    You think you can prove (even though you don't care to) the market is not random b/c it trends or chops for a certain % of time? Perhaps a bit of research on Monte Carlo methods would help. It's uncanny how a known random time series looks exactly like a stock chart when it's plotted out. Give it a try. You can generate a fairly basic one with Excel.

    #10     Sep 24, 2012
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