TA - Objective or Psychological Skill?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by cornix, Jun 11, 2013.

  1. cornix

    cornix

    Very simple: again it's just odds. Do we ever enter a trade which unlikely has the potential worth the risk? Of course we don't. Do we have a guaranteed profit on each or most of trades? No we don't.

    But if our statistical information says entry A taken on maximum risk B provides move of magnitude C with probability D and it all results in a positive expectancy then we've got an edge.

    See my point? Probability of move of at least C also matters and it's different from probability of the same move in case of random entry.
     
    #531     Jul 1, 2013
  2. I beleive that the results would be similar whether you wait to enter for a particular pattern, enter long every 10 minutes, short when venus is in transit, or at low and high tide in NYC---- as long as you properly manage your exit, you should earn $$. surf
     
    #532     Jul 1, 2013
  3. sheda

    sheda

    YOU WOULD get slaughtered.
     
    #533     Jul 1, 2013
  4. I might. Trade management isn't my strong point-- for sure!

    What about someone with impecible money management skills or better yet a computer? You don't think there is enough variation is the daily moves to profit? Because if a 40% win rate can profit, I would think any win rate could as long as the winners run and the losses cut short.

    In fact, you could make 50 trades-- have 49 tiny losses and the 50th trade be a massive winner and still be profitable. TA is nothing but a mental crutch for those who cant' handle the truth about random perception.

    surf
     
    #534     Jul 1, 2013
  5. Don't you see those are just sound good/feel good words? There is no science or actual testing behind them.

    surf
     
    #535     Jul 1, 2013
  6. cornix

    cornix

    If it's so easy why haven't you made a fortune trading with prudent money management only yet?
     
    #536     Jul 1, 2013
  7. Trade management certainly isn't my strong point. I never said it was easy.
     
    #537     Jul 1, 2013
  8. sheda

    sheda

    40% win rate can profit because each trade has an entry and exit context, you enter and exit at random, in the above situation you assume 49 entrys are wrong yet somehow a random exit can capture a significant move?

    The new HFT technology| Random Box ~ Endorsed by Knight Capital ~ Bringing bankcrupty to an account near you! :lol:

    You try to hard Mr Surf.
     
    #538     Jul 1, 2013
  9. No, exits are not random. Only entries. Exits are based on price.
     
    #539     Jul 1, 2013
  10. sheda

    sheda

    Tell us more
     
    #540     Jul 1, 2013