TA help

I'm trying desperately to understand TA, I have a 6 week chart for intel below where i drew a channel, and some s/r lines.

My game plan is this:

According to my 6 week chart, Intel has made new highs, I would like to see intc bounce off its "R2" line (see chart), although I think this is doughtful sense I didn't expect intc to go higher than 19.75. I think this bigger than normal move was/is largely news related. As you can see, intc has broken from its upward channel and looks like a good time to short, especially sense intc has been consolidating on my 10 minute chart with not much volume. Also note the hanging man candle (top reversal signal). In the next week and a half, I expect to see intc fall back to its "S1" line (see chart) sense that is where it has bounced off more than once.

please tell me what you think.

I also attached the original chart, if you want to draw your own lines.

ANY constructive criticism will be greatly appreciated!.

THANKS

- nate

 

here is the original 6 week for intc.

 

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Two points:

• Look at the bigger picture too, even if you're daytrading. Reversal points are usually determined by longer time frame trends.
• Identify the current trend for your trading time frame, then either trade with it or stay out. If you think that the current trend is overextended stay out of that market until the new trade is confirmed. Don't try to pick reversal points.

 

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Nate;
Agree with Cnms on longer time frame, like 1year;
assuming your R2 is valid on longer 1 year chart.
Havent checked it however, weeky 1 year ???????

Most INTC trends are down,down this year;
19.75 is 50 day moving average

 

You are missing the point CM69.

You need a constructive set of rules that tell you when and how to scale into the market, where to place your stops and when and how to scale out.

Bear in mind that the first step is to break the market into at least 3 stages Long, short and neither long or short according to your rules.

Then you need to analyise at least 34 trades when each of these conditions hold true and also when they do not. This will give you a true comparison of your system, both for and against your rules.

If you can live with the results, then fund it and trade it.

Do not, I repeat do not attempt to analyise each "next potential trade"
You will go mad.
Now, take several steps back from your TA books and think carefully about what it is that you are attempting.
Goodluck.

 

very good points made by cnms2